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Economic valuation of the vulnerability of world agriculture confronted with pollinator decline

Author

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  • Nicola Gallai

    () (LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - ENSFEA - École Nationale Supérieure de Formation de l'Enseignement Agricole de Toulouse-Auzeville)

  • Jean-Michel Salles

    (LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UM3 - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - INRA Montpellier - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier)

  • Josef Settele

    (UFZ - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research)

  • Bernard E. Vaissière

    (AE - Abeilles et Environnement - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UAPV - Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse)

Abstract

There is mounting evidence of pollinator decline all over the world and consequences in many agricultural areas could be significant. We assessed these consequences by measuring 1) the contribution of insect pollination to the world agricultural output economic value, and 2) the vulnerability of world agriculture in the face of pollinator decline. We used a bioeconomic approach, which integrated the production dependence ratio on pollinators, for the 100 crops used directly for human food worldwide as listed by FAO. The total economic value of pollination worldwide amounted to €153 billion, which represented 9.5% of the value of the world agricultural production used for human food in 2005. In terms of welfare, the consumer surplus loss was estimated between €190 and €310 billion based upon average price elasticities of –1.5 to –0.8, respectively. Vegetables and fruits were the leading crop categories in value of insect pollination with about €50 billion each, followed by edible oil crops, stimulants, nuts and spices. The production value of a ton of the crop categories that do not depend on insect pollination averaged €151 while that of those that are pollinator-dependent averaged €761. The vulnerability ratio was calculated for each crop category at the regional and world scales as the ratio between the economic value of pollination and the current total crop value. This ratio varied considerably among crop categories and there was a positive correlation between the rate of vulnerability to pollinators decline of a crop category and its value per production unit. Looking at the capacity to nourish the world population after pollinator loss, the production of 3 crop categories – namely fruits, vegetables, and stimulants– will clearly be below the current consumption level at the world scale and even more so for certain regions like Europe. Yet, although our valuation clearly demonstrates the economic importance of insect pollinators, it cannot be considered as a scenario since it does not take into account the strategic responses of the markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Gallai & Jean-Michel Salles & Josef Settele & Bernard E. Vaissière, 2009. "Economic valuation of the vulnerability of world agriculture confronted with pollinator decline," Post-Print halshs-01293686, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01293686
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.06.014
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01293686
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dagmar Schröter & Colin Polsky & Anthony Patt, 2005. "Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 573-595, October.
    2. Hassan, Daniel & Simioni, Michel, 2002. "Price Linkage and Transmission between Shippers and Retailers in the French Fresh Vegetable Channel," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24794, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Alan L. Olmstead & Donald B. Wooten, 1987. "Bee Pollination and Productivity Growth: The Case of Alfalfa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(1), pages 56-63.
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