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Long memory and shifts in the unconditional variance in the exchange rate euro/us dollar returns

Author

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  • Leïla Nouira

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Ibrahim Ahamada

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EUREQUA - Equipe Universitaire de Recherche en Economie Quantitative - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jamel Jouini

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alain Nurbel

    (Faculté de droit et d'économie - UR - Université de La Réunion)

Abstract

In this paper two characteristics a priori contradictory and yet coexistent in the daily returns of exchange rate euro/US dollar are drawn. The non-stationarity of the covariance structure of the series is shown and, after the extraction of the unstable variance using the algorithm based on the cumulative sums of squares of Inclan and Tiao ( Journal of the American Statistical Association , 1994 , 89 (427), 913-23), the existence of long-memory in the filtered series. Does the non-stationarity of the unconditional variance explain the phenomenon of long-memory? Thus a classic debate is found of which the exit does not again elucidate.

Suggested Citation

  • Leïla Nouira & Ibrahim Ahamada & Jamel Jouini & Alain Nurbel, 2004. "Long memory and shifts in the unconditional variance in the exchange rate euro/us dollar returns," Post-Print halshs-00272871, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00272871
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485042000230733
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahamada, Ibrahim, 2002. "Tests for covariance stationarity and white noise, with an application to Euro/US dollar exchange rate: An approach based on the evolutionary spectral density," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 177-186, October.
    2. Loretan, Mico & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1994. "Testing the covariance stationarity of heavy-tailed time series: An overview of the theory with applications to several financial datasets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 211-248, January.
    3. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Testing for covariance stationarity in stock market data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 165-170, June.
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    5. Sylvain Prado, 2011. "Free lunch in the oil market: a note on Long Memory," Working Papers hal-04140982, HAL.
    6. John Francis Diaz & Jo-Hui Chen, 2017. "Testing for Long-memory and Chaos in the Returns of Currency Exchange-traded Notes (ETNs)," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(4), pages 1-2.
    7. Korkmaz, Turhan & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Özataç, Nesrin, 2009. "Testing for long memory in ISE using Arfima-Figarch model and structural break test," MPRA Paper 71302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Malinda & Maya & Jo-Hui & Chen, 2022. "Testing for the Long Memory and Multiple Structural Breaks in Consumer ETFs," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(6), pages 1-6.
    9. Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2013. "Causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance within the international steam coal market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 594-604.
    10. Argel S. Masa & John Francis T. Diaz, 2017. "Long-memory Modelling and Forecasting of the Returns and Volatility of Exchange-traded Notes (ETNs)," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 23-53, February.
    11. Badagian Baharian, Ana Laura & Kaiser Remiro, Regina & Peña, Daniel, 2013. "The change-point problem and segmentation of processes with conditional heteroskedasticity," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws131718, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

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    Keywords

    long memory; nonstationariry;

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