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Economic resilience in Central Africa in the face of COVID-19: corruption, a hindrance or a key factor?

Author

Listed:
  • Aristide Merlin Ngono

  • Bruno Emmanuel Ongo Nkoa
  • Marc-Hubert Depret

    (UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, CRIEF [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière [UR 13822] - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, LéP [Poitiers] - Laboratoire d'économie de Poitiers [UR 13822] - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers)

  • Cho Emmanuel Asafor

Abstract

ContextThe COVID-19 health crisis has triggered major economic shocks globally, particularly affecting the fragile economies of Central Africa. The region, faced with institutional challenges and sometimes fragile governance, has had to implement strict health measures (lockdowns, border closures, etc.) to limit the spread of the virus. However, the impact of these measures on economic resilience remains underexplored, particularly with regard to the influence of corruption in this process. This study aims to analyze the effects of COVID-19 control measures on economic resilience in the region, with a specific focus on the role of corruption. MethodsThe study is based on an econometric analysis using panel data covering several Central African countries during the pandemic. We use Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Triple Least Squares (TLS) regressions to estimate the impact of economic support policies, health measures, and corruption on the economic resilience index. Variables include income support, debt relief, and other health measures such as school and workplace closures. The corruption indicator is included to assess its influence on economic recovery. ResultsThe results show that income support policies and debt relief have a significant impact on economic resilience, but corruption exacerbates the negative effects on growth. Countries with higher levels of corruption experience slower economic recovery. Health measures such as school and workplace closures also have negative effects, although these are mitigated by appropriate support policies. ConclusionsThis study reveals that corruption plays a key role in post-COVID economic resilience in Central Africa. More transparent governance and stronger institutions are crucial to building resilience in the face of health crises. Recommendations include better management of public resources and the adoption of more inclusive economic policies to accelerate economic recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Aristide Merlin Ngono & Bruno Emmanuel Ongo Nkoa & Marc-Hubert Depret & Cho Emmanuel Asafor, 2025. "Economic resilience in Central Africa in the face of COVID-19: corruption, a hindrance or a key factor?," Post-Print hal-05285105, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05285105
    DOI: 10.1186/s12913-025-13163-0
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://univ-poitiers.hal.science/hal-05285105v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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