Dynamic and spillover effects of armed conflicts on renewable energy in Subsaharan Africa

This paper investigates the impact of armed conflicts on renewable energy consumption in 46 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000–2020. Understanding this relationship is crucial, as the transition to renewable energy is essential for sustainable development, yet it may be undermined by political instability and violent conflict. The study employs a dynamic spatial econometric approach to capture both spatial and temporal effects of armed conflicts on renewable energy use. Using the dynamic spatial Durbin model, the findings reveal that armed conflicts exert a significant negative influence on renewable energy consumption. The estimated impact is 18.76 % in the dynamic model, compared to 17.58 % in the non-dynamic model. Spatial spillover effects suggest that armed conflicts, through contagion and diffusion mechanisms, negatively affect renewable energy consumption in neighboring countries by approximately 14 %. Both short and long term effects are generally negative and statistically significant. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that terrorism has a more pronounced effect than other types of conflict. Additionally, the impact of armed conflicts is stronger in the Sahel region than in the rest of the sample. The paper identifies three main transmission channels through which conflict impedes renewable energy consumption: hindered economic development, increased military spending at the expense of green investment, and heightened uncertainty, which discourages investment and disrupts renewable energy production.