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How many inner simulations to compute conditional expectations with least-square Monte Carlo?

Author

Listed:
  • Aurélien Alfonsi

    (MATHRISK - Mathematical Risk Handling - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Inria de Paris - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique, CERMICS - Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche en Mathématiques et Calcul Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech)

  • Bernard Lapeyre

    (MATHRISK - Mathematical Risk Handling - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Inria de Paris - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique, CERMICS - Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche en Mathématiques et Calcul Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech)

  • Jérôme Lelong

    (DAO - Données, Apprentissage et Optimisation - LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)

Abstract

The problem of computing the conditional expectation E[f (Y)|X] with least-square Monte-Carlo is of general importance and has been widely studied. To solve this problem, it is usually assumed that one has as many samples of Y as of X. However, when samples are generated by computer simulation and the conditional law of Y given X can be simulated, it may be relevant to sample K ∈ N values of Y for each sample of X. The present work determines the optimal value of K for a given computational budget, as well as a way to estimate it. The main take away message is that the computational gain can be all the more important that the computational cost of sampling Y given X is small with respect to the computational cost of sampling X. Numerical illustrations on the optimal choice of K and on the computational gain are given on different examples including one inspired by risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Aurélien Alfonsi & Bernard Lapeyre & Jérôme Lelong, 2023. "How many inner simulations to compute conditional expectations with least-square Monte Carlo?," Post-Print hal-03770051, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03770051
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-023-10038-x
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03770051v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Least square Monte-Carlo; Conditional expectation estimators; Variance reduction;
    All these keywords.

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