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A road map for explorative scenario creation on Belgian rail freight transport development

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Troch
  • Thierry Vanelslander

    (Department of Transport and Regional Economics - UA - University of Antwerp)

  • Christa Sys

    (BNP Paribas Fortis chair on transport, logistics and ports)

  • Florent Laroche

    (UA - University of Antwerp)

  • Angel Merchan
  • Martine Mostert
  • Vidar Stevens
  • Christine Tawfik
  • Sandra Belboom
  • Angelique Leonard

    (Université de Liège)

  • Sabine Limbourg
  • Koen Verhoest

Abstract

The starting point of this article is the weak usage of rail freight in Belgium and Europe, both as a sustainable mode of land transportation in itself as well as a part of the intermodal chain. The results are obtained by transversal research on rail freight transport in Belgium, taking into account the European context. This interdisciplinary research develops a road map for the creation of three integrated scenarios: a best case, medium case and worst case scenario for rail freight development, based on a detailed SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunities, threats) analysis. It includes the most probable future developments for rail freight transport and hinterland connections. These developments are obtained from literature review and discussions with a heterogeneous panel of experts in the fields of (i) optimal corridor and hub development, (ii) macroeconomic impact, (iii) sustainability, (iv) effective market regulation and (v) governance and organization for a well-functioning intermodality. The Delphi approach is used in combination with a survey analysis. Frequency tables and the H-index allow defining a ranking and selection of SWOT elements. The obtained scenarios allow future research to quantify and measure the impact of future developments and decisions towards the Belgian rail freight market.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Troch & Thierry Vanelslander & Christa Sys & Florent Laroche & Angel Merchan & Martine Mostert & Vidar Stevens & Christine Tawfik & Sandra Belboom & Angelique Leonard & Sabine Limbourg & Koen Ve, 2017. "A road map for explorative scenario creation on Belgian rail freight transport development," Post-Print hal-01745735, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01745735
    DOI: 10.1177/1783591717734792
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01745735
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Janic, Milan, 2008. "An assessment of the performance of the European long intermodal freight trains (LIFTS)," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(10), pages 1326-1339, December.
    2. Mitusch, Kay & Liedtke, Gernot & Guihery, Laurent & Bälz, David, 2014. "The structure of freight flows in Europe and its implications for EU railway freight policy," Working Paper Series in Economics 61, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    3. Kay Mitusch & Gernot Liedtke & Laurent Guihéry & David Bälz, 2014. "The structure of freight flows in Europe and its implications for EU railway freight policy," Post-Print halshs-02127633, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christine Tawfik & Sabine Limbourg, 2019. "A Bilevel Model for Network Design and Pricing Based on a Level-of-Service Assessment," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 1609-1626, November.
    2. Aoun, Joelle & Quaglietta, Egidio & Goverde, Rob M.P., 2023. "Roadmap development for the deployment of virtual coupling in railway signalling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).

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    Keywords

    survey; Intermodal; rail freight; SWOT analysis; scenario analysis; Delphi technique;
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