IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01348828.html

Optimal trading policies for wind energy producer

Author

Listed:
  • Zongjun Tan

    (LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Peter Tankov

    (LPSM (UMR_8001) - Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistique et Modélisation - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité)

Abstract

We study the optimal trading policies for a wind energy producer who aims to sell the future production in the open forward, spot, intraday and adjustment markets , and who has access to imperfect dynamically updated forecasts of the future production. We construct a stochastic model for the forecast evolution and determine the optimal trading policies which are updated dynamically as new forecast information becomes available. Our results allow to quantify the expected future gain of the wind producer and to determine the economic value of the forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Zongjun Tan & Peter Tankov, 2018. "Optimal trading policies for wind energy producer," Post-Print hal-01348828, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01348828
    DOI: 10.1137/16M1093069
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01348828v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-01348828v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1137/16M1093069?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:aen:journl:ej35-1-06 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. René Aïd & P. Gruet & H. Pham, 2016. "An optimal trading problem in intraday electricity markets," Post-Print hal-01609481, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Tankov & Laura Tinsi, 2024. "Stochastic optimization with dynamic probabilistic forecasts," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 336(1), pages 711-747, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benedikt Finnah, 2022. "Optimal bidding functions for renewable energies in sequential electricity markets," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 44(1), pages 1-27, March.
    2. Goodarzi, Shadi & Perera, H. Niles & Bunn, Derek, 2019. "The impact of renewable energy forecast errors on imbalance volumes and electricity spot prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
    4. Kaneko, Nanae & Fujimoto, Yu & Hayashi, Yasuhiro, 2022. "Sensitivity analysis of factors relevant to extreme imbalance between procurement plans and actual demand: Case study of the Japanese electricity market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    5. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories," Papers 2005.01365, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    6. Yiming Zhang & Wolfgang Ridinger & David Wozabal, 2025. "Joint Bidding on Intraday and Frequency Containment Reserve Markets," Papers 2510.03209, arXiv.org.
    7. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 411-423.
    8. Ningyuan Chen & Steven Kou & Chun Wang, 2018. "A Partitioning Algorithm for Markov Decision Processes with Applications to Market Microstructure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 784-803, February.
    9. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Econometric modelling and forecasting of intraday electricity prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    10. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Optimal Order Execution in Intraday Markets: Minimizing Costs in Trade Trajectories," Papers 2009.07892, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    11. Thomas Deschatre & Pierre Gruet, 2021. "Electricity intraday price modeling with marked Hawkes processes," Papers 2103.07407, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    12. Roxana Dumitrescu & Redouane Silvente & Peter Tankov, 2024. "Price impact and long-term profitability of energy storage," Papers 2410.12495, arXiv.org.
    13. Simon Hirsch & Florian Ziel, 2022. "Simulation-based Forecasting for Intraday Power Markets: Modelling Fundamental Drivers for Location, Shape and Scale of the Price Distribution," Papers 2211.13002, arXiv.org.
    14. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "Understanding intraday electricity markets: Variable selection and very short-term price forecasting using LASSO," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1533-1547.
    15. René Aid & Andrea Cosso & Huyên Pham, 2022. "Equilibrium price in intraday electricity markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 517-554, April.
    16. Olivier F'eron & Peter Tankov & Laura Tinsi, 2020. "Price formation and optimal trading in intraday electricity markets with a major player," Papers 2011.07655, arXiv.org.
    17. Kramer, Anke & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2021. "Exogenous factors for order arrivals on the intraday electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    18. Michał Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2019. "Estimation and Simulation of the Transaction Arrival Process in Intraday Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-16, November.
    19. Ioannis Boukas & Damien Ernst & Thibaut Th'eate & Adrien Bolland & Alexandre Huynen & Martin Buchwald & Christelle Wynants & Bertrand Corn'elusse, 2020. "A Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for Continuous Intraday Market Bidding," Papers 2004.05940, arXiv.org.
    20. Olivier Féron & Peter Tankov & Laura Tinsi, 2020. "Price Formation and Optimal Trading in Intraday Electricity Markets with a Major Player," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-21, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01348828. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.