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Long-Term Water Demand Forecasting

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  • Jean-Daniel Rinaudo

    (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières)

Abstract

This chapter reviews existing long term water demand forecasting methodologies. Based on an extensive literature review, it shows that the domain has benefited from contributions by economists, engineers and system modelers, producing a wide range of tools, many of which have been tested and adopted by practitioners. It illustrates, via three detailed case studies in the USA, the UK and Australia, how different tools can be used depending on the regulatory context, the water scarcity level, the geographic scale at which they are deployed and the technical background of water utilities and their consultants. The chapter reviews how practitioners address three main challenges, namely the integration of land use planning with demand forecasting; accounting for climate change; and dealing with forecast uncertainty. It concludes with a discussion of research perspectives in that domain.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Daniel Rinaudo, 2015. "Long-Term Water Demand Forecasting," Post-Print hal-01183853, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01183853
    DOI: 10.1007/978-94-017-9801-3_11
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://brgm.hal.science/hal-01183853
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jasper M. Dalhuisen & Raymond J. G. M. Florax & JHenri L. F. de Groot & Peter Nijkamp, 2003. "Price and Income Elasticities of Residential Water Demand: A Meta-Analysis," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(2), pages 292-308.
    2. Mohamed Mohamed & Aysha Al-Mualla, 2010. "Water Demand Forecasting in Umm Al-Quwain (UAE) Using the IWR-MAIN Specify Forecasting Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 4093-4120, November.
    3. Andrew C. Worthington & Mark Hoffman, 2008. "An Empirical Survey Of Residential Water Demand Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 842-871, December.
    4. Arbues, Fernando & Garcia-Valinas, Maria Angeles & Martinez-Espineira, Roberto, 2003. "Estimation of residential water demand: a state-of-the-art review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 81-102, March.
    5. M. Froukh, 2001. "Decision-Support System for Domestic Water Demand Forecasting and Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 15(6), pages 363-382, December.
    6. Montginoul, Marielle & Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel, 2011. "Controlling households' drilling fever in France: An economic modeling approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 140-150.
    7. repec:asg:wpaper:1005 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Katherine Daniell & Jean-Daniel Rinaudo & Noel Wai Wah Chan & Céline Nauges & Quentin Grafton, 2015. "Understanding and Managing Urban Water in Transition," Post-Print hal-01290502, HAL.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yanhu He & Jie Yang & Xiaohong Chen & Kairong Lin & Yanhui Zheng & Zhaoli Wang, 2018. "A Two-stage Approach to Basin-scale Water Demand Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(2), pages 401-416, January.
    3. D. Manouseli & B. Anderson & M. Nagarajan, 2018. "Domestic Water Demand During Droughts in Temperate Climates: Synthesising Evidence for an Integrated Framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(2), pages 433-447, January.

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    Keywords

    water demand forecasting; economic modeling; end-use modeling; statistical modeling; France; Australia; UK; USA;
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