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The statistical origin of the cobweb diagram

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  • Emeric Lendjel

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The "cobweb theorem" or "cobweb diagram" is one of the first mathematical formalization that deals with the stability of the market process (Ezekiel [1938]). Moore gave intuitively its first formulation (Stigler [1962]), but its mathematical formalization was independently done by Ricci [1930], Schultz [1930] and Tinbergen [1930]. First, the paper shows how the idea of the cobweb mechanism appears in Moore's work in order to solve a statistical problem, namely the statistical estimation of supply and demand curves. "Inadvertently" (Samuelson [1947]) Moore sets out the cobweb idea which mathematical formalization was given by Ricci, Schultz and Tinbergen. Second, this paper is an attempt to trace the links between Moore's work and its followers. It shows that the meaning of the cobweb diagram was different in the authors' thought. It also stress the role of the mathematics in the investigation process of economic phenomena.

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  • Emeric Lendjel, 2000. "The statistical origin of the cobweb diagram," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03243880, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03243880
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03243880
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    1. Michel De Vroey, 2000. "Marshall on equilibrium and time: a reconstruction," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 245-269.
    2. Henry Schultz, 1925. "The Statistical Law of Demand as Illustrated by the Demand for Sugar," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(5), pages 481-481.
    3. Marc Nerlove, 1958. "Adaptive Expectations and Cobweb Phenomena," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 72(2), pages 227-240.
    4. Nicholas Kaldor, 1934. "A Classificatory Note on the Determinateness of Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 1(2), pages 122-136.
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    6. Hendry,David F. & Morgan,Mary S., 1997. "The Foundations of Econometric Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521588706, October.
    7. Henry Ludwell Moore, 1926. "A Theory of Economic Oscillations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 41(1), pages 1-29.
    8. Holbrook Working, 1925. "The Statistical Determination of Demand Curves," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 39(4), pages 503-543.
    9. Philip Mirowski, 1990. "Problems in the Paternity of Econometrics: Henry Ludwell Moore," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 587-609, Winter.
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    11. Henry Schultz, 1925. "The Statistical Law of Demand as Illustrated by the Demand for Sugar," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(6), pages 577-577.
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    13. Mordecai Ezekiel, 1938. "The Cobweb Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 52(2), pages 255-280.
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