IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gue/guelph/2024-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Extended Crop Yield Meta-analysis Data do not Support Upward SCC Revision

Author

Listed:
  • Ross McKitrick

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Guelph, Guelph ON Canada)

Abstract

The Biden Administration has raised its Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimate about 5-fold based in part on global crop yield decline projections estimated on a meta-analysis data base first published in 2014. The data set contains 1,722 records but half were missing at least one variable (usually the change in CO2) so only 862 were available for multivariate regression modeling. By re-examining the underlying sources I was able to recover 360 records and increase the sample size to 1,222. Reanalysis on the larger data set yields very different results. While the original smaller data set implies yield declines of all crop types even at low levels of warming, on the full data set global average yield changes are zero or positive even out to 5°C warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross McKitrick, 2024. "Extended Crop Yield Meta-analysis Data do not Support Upward SCC Revision," Working Papers 2404, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:gue:guelph:2024-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.uoguelph.ca/economics/repec/workingpapers/2024/2024-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frances C. Moore & Uris Baldos & Thomas Hertel & Delavane Diaz, 2017. "New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. A. J. Challinor & J. Watson & D. B. Lobell & S. M. Howden & D. R. Smith & N. Chhetri, 2014. "A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 287-291, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hanjun Lu & Alan P. Ker, 2025. "On Tail Structural Change in U.S. Climate Data," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kevin Dayaratna & Ross McKitrick, 2023. "Reply to comment on “climate sensitivity, agricultural productivity and the social cost of carbon in fund” by Philip Meyer," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(2), pages 291-298, April.
    2. Ma, Shimeng & Ritsema, Coen J. & Wang, Sufen, 2024. "Achieving sustainable crop management: A holistic approach to crop competitiveness assessment and structure optimization with dual natural-social environmental impacts," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    3. Katherine Calvin & Bryan K. Mignone & Haroon S. Kheshgi & Abigail C. Snyder & Pralit Patel & Marshall Wise & Leon E. Clarke & Jae Edmonds, 2020. "Global Market And Economic Welfare Implications Of Changes In Agricultural Yields Due To Climate Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Namra Ghaffar & Bushra Noreen & Maryam Muhammad Ali & Amna Ali, 2021. "Rice Yield Estimation in Sawat Region Incorporating The Local Physio-Climatic Parameters," International Journal of Agriculture & Sustainable Development, 50sea, vol. 3(2), pages 46-50, June.
    5. Gong, Ziqian & Baker, Justin S. & Wade, Christopher M. & Havlík, Petr, 2024. "Irrigation intensification in U.S. agriculture under climate change – an adaptation mechanism or trade-induced response?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Fries, Steven, 2023. "Sequencing decarbonization policies to manage their macroeconomic impacts," INET Oxford Working Papers 2023-26, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    7. Dániel Fróna & János Szenderák & Mónika Harangi-Rákos, 2019. "The Challenge of Feeding the World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-18, October.
    8. Ignaciuk, Ada & Malevolti, Giulia & Scognamillo, Antonio & Sitko, Nicholas J., "undated". "Can food aid relax farmers’ constraints to adopting climate-adaptive agricultural practices? Evidence from Ethiopia, Malawi and the United Republic of Tanzania," ESA Working Papers 324073, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    9. Dilshad Ahmad & Muhammad Afzal & Abdur Rauf, 2019. "Analysis of wheat farmers’ risk perceptions and attitudes: evidence from Punjab, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(3), pages 845-861, February.
    10. Francisco Costa & Fabien Forge & Jason Garred & João Paulo Pessoa, 2020. "Climate Change and the Distribution of Agricultural Output," Working Papers 2003E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    11. Guga, Suri & Bole, Yi & Riao, Dao & Bilige, Sudu & Wei, Sicheng & Li, Kaiwei & Zhang, Jiquan & Tong, Zhijun & Liu, Xingpeng, 2025. "The challenge of chilling injury amid shifting maize planting boundaries: A case study of Northeast China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    12. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    13. Konrad Prandecki & Edyta Gajos, 2018. "Reductin of greenhouse gases emission and sustainability: The multi-criteria approach," International Conference on Competitiveness of Agro-food and Environmental Economy Proceedings, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 7, pages 46-54.
    14. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    15. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    16. Dwijaraj Paul Chowdhury & Deep Roy & Ujjwal Saha, 2025. "Study of Rainfall Occurrence Process by Markov Chain Models and Decision Tree-based Ensemble and Boosting Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(6), pages 2857-2877, April.
    17. Liu, Ziheng, 2025. "CO2-driven crop comparative advantage and planting decision: Evidence from US cropland," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    18. Gil-Clavel, Sofia & Wagenblast, Thorid & Filatova, Tatiana, 2023. "Farmers’ Incremental and Transformational Climate Change Adaptation in Different Regions: A Natural Language Processing Comparative Literature Review," SocArXiv 3dp5e, Center for Open Science.
    19. Sabina Thaler & Herbert Formayer & Gerhard Kubu & Miroslav Trnka & Josef Eitzinger, 2021. "Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-39, October.
    20. Kamdi, Prasad Jairam & Swain, Dillip Kumar & Wani, Suhas P., 2023. "Developing climate change agro-adaptation strategies through field experiments and simulation analyses for sustainable sorghum production in semi-arid tropics of India," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gue:guelph:2024-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stephen Kosempel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/degueca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.