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Consumer Debt is 130% of Income: Avoiding Budget Constraint Orthodoxy

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Listed author(s):
  • Hrishikesh D. Vinod

    (Fordham University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

Consumer theory still maximizes utility subject to a budget constraint, when in fact 2008 data show that consumer debt is 130% of disposable income. Granger-causality tests confirm Consumption precedence over income. We discuss several features of newer US data, such as the ability to start /stop part-time /full time work /school, allowing families a greater control on the timing and level of income. Hence, our Wiener-Hopf-Whittle model uses 'target-seeking' optimization, while our two-equation system makes both consumption and income endogenous, similar to quantities and prices in a demand system. The new model provides estimates of shadow prices of income level and adjustment costs, and is shown to help resolve five old 'puzzles' from the consumer theory literature.

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Paper provided by Fordham University, Department of Economics in its series Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series with number dp2008-13.

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Date of creation: 2008
Handle: RePEc:frd:wpaper:dp2008-13
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.fordham.edu/economics/
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Keywords: Stochastic dynamic optimum; Target seeking; VAR; Wiener-Hopf-Whittle; Causality testing;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
  • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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  3. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-1273, November.
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  8. Carroll, Christopher D. & Weil, David N., 1994. "Saving and growth: a reinterpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 133-192, June.
  9. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
  10. María José Luengo-Prado & Bent E. Sørensen, 2008. "What Can Explain Excess Smoothness and Sensitivity of State-Level Consumption?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 65-80, February.
  11. Ben S. Bernanke, 1984. "Permanent Income, Liquidity, and Expenditure on Automobiles: Evidence from Panel Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(3), pages 587-614.
  12. Árpád Ábrahám & Nicola Pavoni, 2005. "The Efficient Allocation of Consumption under Moral Hazard and Hidden Access to the Credit Market," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 370-381, 04/05.
  13. Philip N. Jefferson, 2008. "Poverty Volatility and Macroeconomic Quiescence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 392-397, May.
  14. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
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