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A note on the law of large numbers in economics

  • Patrizia Berti

    ()

    (Dipartimento di Matematica Pura ed Applicata G. Vitali, Universita di Modena e Reggio-Emilia)

  • Michele Gori

    ()

    (Dipartimento di Matematica per le Decisioni, Universita di Firenze)

  • Pietro Rigo

    ()

    (Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Metodi Quantitativi, Universita di Pavia)

Let $(S,\mathcal{B},\Gamma)$ and $(T,\mathcal{C},Q)$ be probability spaces, with $Q$ nonatomic, and $\mathcal{H}=\{H\in\mathcal{C}:Q(H)>0\}$. In some economic models, the following conditional law of large numbers (LLN) is requested. There are a probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{A},P)$ and a process $X=\{X_t:t\in T\}$, with state space $(S,\mathcal{B})$, satisfying \begin{gather*} \text{for each }H\in\mathcal{H},\text{ there is }A_H\in\mathcal{A}\text{ with }P(A_H)=1\text{ such that } \\t\mapsto X(t,\omega)\text{ is measurable and }\,Q\bigl(\{t:X(t,\omega)\in\cdot\}\mid H\bigr)=\Gamma(\cdot)\,\text{ for }\omega\in A_H. \end{gather*} If $\Gamma$ is not trivial and the $\sigma$-field $\mathcal{C}$ countably generated, the conditional LLN fails in the usual (countably additive) setting. Instead, as shown in this note, it holds in a finitely additive setting. Also, $X$ can be taken to have any given distribution. In fact, for any consistent set $\mathcal{P}$ of finite dimensional distributions, there are a finitely additive probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{A},P)$ and a process $X$ such that $X\sim\mathcal{P}$ and the conditional LLN is satisfied.

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Paper provided by Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa in its series Working Papers - Mathematical Economics with number 2009-10.

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Length: 8
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision: Nov 2010
Handle: RePEc:flo:wpaper:2009-10
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  1. Al-Najjar, Nabil I., 2008. "Large games and the law of large numbers," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 1-34, September.
  2. Al-Najjar, Nabil I., 2004. "Aggregation and the law of large numbers in large economies," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, April.
  3. Sun, Yeneng & Zhang, Yongchao, 2009. "Individual risk and Lebesgue extension without aggregate uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 432-443, January.
  4. Judd, Kenneth L., 1985. "The law of large numbers with a continuum of IID random variables," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 19-25, February.
  5. Harald Uhlig, 2010. "A Law of Large Numbers for Large Economies," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2070, David K. Levine.
  6. Sun, Yeneng, 2006. "The exact law of large numbers via Fubini extension and characterization of insurable risks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 31-69, January.
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