Demand volatility and the lag between the growth of temporary and permanent employment
The growth rate of temporary help service employment is often considered to be a leading business cycle indicator, because the firing and hiring of temporary help workers typically lead that of permanent workers. However, few works in the literature focus on the mechanism that generates the lag between temporary and permanent growth. This paper investigates how demand volatility is related to the lag. Focusing on the relationship between a firm’s information extraction and their hiring/firing decisions, our simple model predicts that the average size of transitory demand shocks increase the lag while the average size of shocks that persist longer shortens the lag. Our empirical analysis based on cross-city variation finds supporting evidence to the above predictions, after controlling for city size and other city-specific demographic characteristics.
|Date of creation:||2007|
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Gan, Li & Zhang, Qinghua, 2006.
"The thick market effect on local unemployment rate fluctuations,"
Journal of Econometrics,
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- Qinghua Zhang & Li Gan, 2004. "The thick market effect of local unemployment rate fluctuation," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 179, Econometric Society.
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- Victor Aguirregabiria & Cesar Alonso-Borrego, 2014. "Labor Contracts And Flexibility: Evidence From A Labor Market Reform In Spain," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 930-957, 04.
- Alonso-Borrego, César & Aguirregabiria, Víctor, 1999. "Labor contracts and flexibility : evidence from a labor markt reform in Spain," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6302, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
- Aguirregabiria, Víctor & Alonso-Borrego, César, 2009. "Labor contracts and flexibility : evidence from a labor market reform in Spain," UC3M Working papers. Economics we091811, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Victor Aguirregabiria & Cesar Alonso-Borrego, 2009. "Labor Contracts and Flexibility: Evidence from a Labor Market Reform in Spain," Working Papers tecipa-346, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- David H. Autor, 2000. "Outsourcing at Will: Unjust Dismissal Doctrine and the Growth of Temporary Help Employment," NBER Working Papers 7557, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David H. Autor, 2000. "Outsourcing at Will: Unjust Dismissal Doctrine and the Growth of Temporary Help Employment," JCPR Working Papers 153, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
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