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Pricing Risk Globally: Intermediary Constraints, the Dollar, and the Global Financial Cycle

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Abstract

We study how increased uncertainty about U.S. asset returns affects global asset prices and exchange rates in a two-country model with intermediary balance-sheet constraints. Empirically, uncertainty shocks widen global credit spreads, appreciate the dollar, and increase currency risk premia. In our model, higher uncertainty tightens intermediary constraints and lowers asset prices, reversing the counterfactual asset price increase in frictionless models. Because constraints make net worth especially valuable in bad times, risk premia respond strongly to uncertainty shocks. This interaction allows the model to match the credit spread, currency premium, and dollar responses in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozge Akinci & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2026. "Pricing Risk Globally: Intermediary Constraints, the Dollar, and the Global Financial Cycle," International Finance Discussion Papers 1445, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:103716
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2026.1445
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    2. Rogers, John & Sun, Bo & Wu, Wenbin, 2025. "Drivers of the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Albagli, Elias & Ceballos, Luis & Claro, Sebastian & Romero, Damian, 2024. "UIP deviations: Insights from event studies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Martin Bodenstein & Pablo A. Cuba-Borda & Nils M. Gornemann & Ignacio Presno & Andrea Prestipino & Albert Queraltó & Andrea Raffo, 2023. "Global Flight to Safety, Business Cycles, and the Dollar," International Finance Discussion Papers 1381, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Dong, Xiao & Yu, Mingzhe, 2024. "Time-varying effects of macro shocks on cross-border capital flows in China's bond market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PC).
    6. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Can Soylu & Muhammed A. Yıldırım, 2026. "Global Trade, Tariff Uncertainty, and the US Dollar," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 116, pages 47-52, May.
    7. Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Arne Gieseck, 2025. "The effects of macro uncertainty shocks in the euro area: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(6), pages 2829-2872, June.
    8. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2023. "Collateral Advantage: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows, and Global Cycles," NBER Working Papers 31164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Huang, Yu-Fan & Liao, Wenting & Wang, Taining, 2024. "Does US financial uncertainty spill over through the (asymmetric) international credit channel? The role of market expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    10. Hornstein, Abigail S. & Naknoi, Kanda, 2023. "FDI commitments increase when uncertainty is resolved: Evidence from Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. Avdjiev, Stefan & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Goldberg, Linda S. & Schiaffi, Stefano, 2026. "The risk sensitivity of global liquidity flows: Heterogeneity, evolution and drivers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    12. Caldara, Dario & Ferrante, Francesco & Iacoviello, Matteo & Prestipino, Andrea & Queralto, Albert, 2024. "The international spillovers of synchronous monetary tightening," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 127-152.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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