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Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Global Economic Activity?

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Abstract

In this note, we first document the recent rise in trade policy uncertainty, henceforth TPU, by using two complementary measures based on text-search analysis: one focusing on newspapers articles, and another constructed from transcripts of firms' earning calls. We then use econometric evidence on the joint movements in aggregate TPU, industrial production, and other macroeconomic variables in order to provide an estimate of the effects of the recent spikes in TPU on U.S. GDP, as well as GDP in advanced foreign economies (AFEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs).

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  • Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello & Patrick Molligo & Andrea Prestipino & Andrea Raffo, 2019. "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Global Economic Activity?," FEDS Notes 2019-09-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2019-09-04
    DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.2445
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    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov//econres/notes/feds-notes/does-trade-policy-uncertainty-affect-global-economic-activity-20190904.htm
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    Cited by:

    1. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    2. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Tariff Volatility and Tariff Policy in Developed and Developing Countries," EconStor Preprints 223302, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Ardia, David & Bluteau, Keven & Kassem, Alaa, 2021. "A century of Economic Policy Uncertainty through the French–Canadian lens," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Gianluca Benigno & Jan J. J. Groen, 2020. "Uncertainty about Trade Policy Uncertainty," Staff Reports 919, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Oguzhan Cepni & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Khuliso Ramabulana, 2020. "Time-Varying Spillover of US Trade War on the Growth of Emerging Economies," Working Papers 202002, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Gu, Chen & Chen, Denghui & Stan, Raluca, 2022. "Resolution of financial market uncertainty around the release of unemployment rate announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 586-596.
    7. Fatma Ünlü, 2024. "Trade Balance, Real Exchange Rate and Trade Policy Uncertainty in Türkiye: Evidence from the SVAR Approach," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, vol. 0(40), pages 63-75, June.

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