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Estimating capacity utilization from survey data

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Abstract

In this paper, we review the history and concepts behind the Federal Reserve's measures of capacity and capacity utilization, summarize the methods used to construct the measures, and describe the principal source data for these measures--the Census Bureau's Survey of Plant Capacity. We show that the aggregate manufacturing utilization rate from the Survey of Plant Capacity does not exhibit the \"cyclical bias\" possessed by utilization rates from the less statistically rigorous utilization rate surveys previously used to estimate the Federal Reserve's measures. At the detailed industry level, utilization rates from the Survey of Plant Capacity for several industries do appear to possess a cyclical bias, but we demonstrate that this bias is removed in the construction of the Federal Reserve capacity measures. We further show that the Federal Reserve measures, by combining the Census survey utilization rates with other indicators of capacity, do not discard significant information contained in the Census rates. In fact, the Federal Reserve procedures add to the predictive content of the Census utilization rates in models of capital spending, capacity expansion, and changes in price inflation.

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  • Norman J. Morin & John J. Stevens, 2004. "Estimating capacity utilization from survey data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2004-49
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    9. J. Beaulieu & Joe Mattey, 1998. "The Workweek of Capital and Capital Utilization in Manufacturing," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 199-223, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Norman Morin & John J Stevens, 2005. "Diverging Measures of Capacity Utilization: An Explanation," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 46-54, October.
    2. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2015. "Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(2), pages 507-569.
    3. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 2006/068, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Gantert, Konstantin, 2022. "The impact of active aggregate demand on utilisation-adjusted TFP," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Michalis Nikiforos, 2012. "On the Utilization Controversy: A Theoretical and Empirical Discussion of the Kaleckian Model of Growth and Distribution," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_739, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Lefteris Tsoulfidis & Theologos Dergiades, 2007. "Estimating Capacity Utilization Using a SVAR Model: An Application to the US and Canadian Economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(4), pages 1-12.
    7. Almut Balleer & Marvin Noeller, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-Level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10261, CESifo.
    8. Dale Squires & Kathleen Segerson, 2022. "Capacity and Capacity Utilization in Production Economics," Springer Books, in: Subhash C. Ray & Robert G. Chambers & Subal C. Kumbhakar (ed.), Handbook of Production Economics, chapter 24, pages 1001-1037, Springer.
    9. Santiago J. Gahn, 2020. "Is there a decreasing trend in capacity utilisation in the US economy? Some new evidence," Working Papers PKWP2006, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    10. Michalis Nikiforos, 2021. "Notes on the accumulation and utilization of capital: Some empirical issues," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 679-695, November.
    11. Gantert, Konstantin, 2022. "The Impact of Active Aggregate Demand on Utilization-Adjusted TFP," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264103, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Michalis Nikiforos, 2011. "On the Desired Rate of Capacity Utilization," Working Papers 1116, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:4:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Christoph E. Boehm & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2022. "Convex Supply Curves," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(12), pages 3941-3969, December.
    15. Theologos Dergiades & Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2007. "A New Method For The Estimation Of Capacity Utilization: Theory And Empirical Evidence From 14 Eu Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 361-381, October.

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    Keywords

    Industrial capacity; Statistical methods;

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