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Low Interest Rates and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Joseph G. Haubrich

Abstract

Does the yield curve's ability to predict future output and recessions differ when interest rates and inflation are low, as in the current global environment? We explore the issue using historical data going back to the 19th century for the US. This paper is similar in spirit to Ramey and Zubairy (2018), who look at the government spending multiplier in times of low interest rates. If anything, the yield curve tends to predict output growth better in low interest rate environments, though this result is stronger for RGDP than for IP.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Low Interest Rates and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve," Working Papers 20-24R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 21 Dec 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:88522
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202024r
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Menzie Chinn & Kavan Kucko, 2015. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 129-156, June.
    2. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2008. "Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 48-50, April.
    3. Altig,David E. & Nosal,Ed (ed.), 2009. "Monetary Policy in Low-Inflation Economies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848503, June.
    4. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    5. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2015. "Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 20824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2008. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Growth: Long-Run Evidence, 1875-1997," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 182-185, February.
    7. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    low interest rates; policy; predictive content of the yield curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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