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What do cross-sectional growth regressions tell us about convergence?

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  • Daniel G. Swaine

Abstract

This paper tests the dynamic implications of beta-convergence with time-series data from 48 contiguous U.S. states. The motivation for this paper rests with the interpretation of results from cross-sectional growth regressions. These results show that poor regions experience faster per-capita income growth than rich regions. This is interpreted as evidence of convergence. However, convergence is a dynamic adjustment process with testable implications in time-series data, while the literature employs cross-sectional data to estimate this dynamic concept. A set of strong assumptions must be made to jump from this cross-sectional correlation to its interpretation as a speed of convergence. We find that the time-series properties of the data appear to be inconsistent with beta-convergence dynamics. Further, our analysis rejects the assumptions necessary to interpret the cross-sectional correlation as a speed of convergence. Therefore, our results call into questions the interpretation that has been placed on this important cross-sectional finding.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel G. Swaine, 1998. "What do cross-sectional growth regressions tell us about convergence?," Working Papers 98-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:98-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas F. Quising, 2006. "Measuring Regional Market Integration by Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach - The Case of Developing Asia," Working Papers 565, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas F., 2007. "Measuring Regional Market Integration in Developing Asia: a Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 8, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Mohammad Ashraf & Khan A. Mohabbat, 2010. "Output Convergence and the Role of Research and Development," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 35-71, May.

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