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Educação e investimentos externos como determinantes do crescimento a longo prazo

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  • Marone, Guilherme Cortella
  • Issler, João Pedro
  • Gonzaga, Gustavo Maurício

Abstract

Esse artigo usa uma metodologia de decomposição tendência-ciclo para estimar o produto potencial brasileiro e investigar a importância relativa dos choques permanentes e transitórios. Conclui-se que os primeiros explicam quase que 100% da variância do produto privado. A partir desta evidência, investiga-se a existência de relações de longo prazo entre o produto potencial e diversos possiveis determinantes do crescimento a longo prazo, como investimentos externos, escolaridade média e taxa de analfabetismo da população econolTÚcamente ativa. Conclui-se que as duas primeiras possuem uma relação de longo prazo com o produto potencial, e que a elasticidade de longo prazo é não desprezível. A luz desta evidência, discute-se questões de política econômica.

Suggested Citation

  • Marone, Guilherme Cortella & Issler, João Pedro & Gonzaga, Gustavo Maurício, 1995. "Educação e investimentos externos como determinantes do crescimento a longo prazo," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 274, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:274
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Durlauf, Steven N., 1993. "Time series properties of aggregate output fluctuations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 39-56, March.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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