A dynamic multilevel behavioural framework for emergency preparedness

Societal shocks such as extreme weather events, pandemics, large-scale conflict, or disasters test the resilience of individuals, communities, and broader societal systems. In response, governments and organizations worldwide are investing in improving preparedness and strengthening societal resilience. Despite widespread endorsement, a major challenge lies in the absence of a shared conceptualization that captures the behaviour of the various actors involved in the multi-level, dynamic, and time-dependent nature of preparedness. Using a pandemic as central illustrative example of an emergency, this paper fills the gap by merging the emergency management cycle with the socio-ecological model and offering a behavioural framework that captures the complex temporal and social dimensions of preparedness. We delineate how actions of individuals, communities, organizations, and governments - across phases of the emergency management cycle, from “cold” (preparation) to “hot” (crisis) phases - jointly shape preparedness, i.e. the capability to prevent, respond to, and recover from emergencies. The framework highlights both horizontal interdependencies, where early actions enable or constrain later responses; and vertical interdependencies, reflecting feedback and influence among actors at different societal levels. By mapping these dynamic interconnections, the framework provides practical guidance for designing policies and protocols. It offers an analytical frame for deciding who must act, when, and how; emphasizes coordination and feedback across levels; and identifies behavioral and systemic determinants of preparedness.