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Semi-parametric estimation of incubation and generation times by means of Laguerre polynomials

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  • Kreiss, Alexander
  • Van Keilegom, Ingrid

Abstract

In epidemics many interesting quantities, like the reproduction number, depend on the incubation period (time from infection to symptom onset) and/or the generation time (time until a new person is infected from another infected person). Therefore, estimation of the distribution of these two quantities is of distinct interest. However, this is a challenging problem since it is normally not possible to obtain precise observations of these two variables. Instead, in the beginning of a pandemic, it is possible to observe for transmission pairs the time of symptom onset for both people as well as a window for infection of the first person (e.g. because of travel to a risk area). In this paper we suggest a simple semi-parametric sieve-estimation method based on Laguerre-Polynomials for estimation of these distributions. We provide detailed theory for consistency and illustrate the finite sample performance for small datasets via a simulation study.

Suggested Citation

  • Kreiss, Alexander & Van Keilegom, Ingrid, 2022. "Semi-parametric estimation of incubation and generation times by means of Laguerre polynomials," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113376, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:113376
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/113376/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chunrong Ai & Xiaohong Chen, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Models with Conditional Moment Restrictions Containing Unknown Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1795-1843, November.
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    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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