IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Predicting Changes in the Interest Rate: The Performance of Taylor Rules Versus Alternatives for the United Kingdom

Listed author(s):
  • Kim, Tae-Hwan

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Thanaset Chevapatrakul
  • Paul Mizen

We consider an experiment where we use the Taylor rule information set, inflation and the output gap, to predict the next change in monetary policy for the United Kingdom 1992 - 2000. To do this we use a limited dependent variable approach, where the next rate change could be `upwards', `downwards' or `no change'. A Multinomial Logit model is used to predict the next most likely change using monthly data, and these predictions are compared to the actual outturn. Against this hypothesis we compare a wider information set including more than just inflation and output gap variables. The in-sample and out-of-sample prediction tests are evaluated using forecast performance tests.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://repec.org/res2003/KimTH.pdf
File Function: full text
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 with number 122.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 04 Jun 2003
Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:122
Contact details of provider: Postal:
2 Dean Trench Street, Westminster, SW1P 3HE

Phone: +44 20 3137 6301
Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/society/annualconf.asp
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
  2. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1996. "What Does the Bundesbank Target?," NBER Working Papers 5764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Cecchetti, Stephen G, 2000. "Making Monetary Policy: Objectives and Rules," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 43-59, Winter.
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Brian P. Sack, 1998. "Does the Fed act gradually? a VAR analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Taylor, John B, 2000. "Alternative Views of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: What Difference Do They Make for Monetary Policy?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 60-73, Winter.
  8. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  9. Edward Nelson, 2000. "UK monetary policy 1972-97: a guide using Taylor rules," Bank of England working papers 120, Bank of England.
  10. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.
  11. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2002. "Activist stabilization policy and inflation: The Taylor rule in the 1970s," CFS Working Paper Series 2002/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  12. McCallum, Bennett T, 2000. "The Present and Future of Monetary Policy Rules," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 273-286, July.
  13. Budd, Alan, 1998. "The Role and Operations of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1783-1794, November.
  14. Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.