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The State of the Indian Economy 2009-10

Author

Listed:
  • Mathew Joseph

    (ICRIER)

  • Karan Singh
  • Pankaj Vashisht
  • Dony Alex
  • Alamuru Soumya
  • Ritika Tewari
  • Ritwik Banerjee

Abstract

Despite signs of recovery from the global financial crisis, the GDP growth rate for the Indian economy is likely to be between 5.8 to 6.1 per cent in 2009-10, below the 6.7 per cent recorded in fiscal 2008-09. While there has been an improvement in Indian industry, particularly the manufacturing sector, the adverse impact of the fall in kharif production due to a rainfall deficiency will act as a drag on the overall growth of the economy. In the current financial year, the major policy challenges for the government will come from the rather sharp rise in inflation and deteriorating public finances. The balance of payments situation may also require policy attention despite a narrowing of the current account deficit and a considerable capital account surplus because of the appreciation of the rupee.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathew Joseph & Karan Singh & Pankaj Vashisht & Dony Alex & Alamuru Soumya & Ritika Tewari & Ritwik Banerjee, 2009. "The State of the Indian Economy 2009-10," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22915, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22915
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    File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/22915
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rudi Dornbusch, 2002. "A Primer on Emerging-Market Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 743-754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Luigi Spaventa, 1987. "The Growth of Public Debt: Sustainability, Fiscal Rules, and Monetary Rules," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(2), pages 374-399, June.
    3. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 219-294.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "CAPITAL FLOWS AND CAPITAL-MARKET CRISES: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 35-54, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:pid:wpaper:2010:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Umaima Arif & Eatzaz Ahmed, 2010. "Pension System Reforms for Pakistan: Current Situation and Future Prospects," PIDE Monograph Series 2010:2, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    3. Amjad, Rashid & Din, Musleh ud, 2010. "Economic and social impact of global financial crisis: implications for macroeconomic and development policies in South Asia," MPRA Paper 38150, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting Indian Economic Growth; Economic outlook and conditions; financial crisis; Fiscal Sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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