Productivity, Wages and Employment in South Africa’s Manufacturing Sector, 1970-2002
This paper investigates the relationship between labour productivity, average real wages and employment in South Africa’s manufacturing sector, using cointegrating VAR and VECM econometric techniques. A long-run equilibrium relationship was found between real wages and productivity, with an elasticity of 0,38 indicating that productivity has grown more rapidly than wages. However, the econometric tests proved to be highly sensitive to specification and sample period. Nevertheless, the main result is consistent with the finding that labour’s share of gross output has been shrinking over the past three decades, which has negative implications for income distribution. These trends may plausibly be explained by capital intensification and possibly the adoption of labour-saving technology. The implication is that growth in the manufacturing sector cannot realistically be relied upon to create significantly more jobs for South Africa’s millions of unemployed. Policy-makers are urged to consider alternative strategies which promote local economy and protect key labour-intensive sectors.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Working Paper Series by the Development Policy Research Unit, March 2004, pages 1-35|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, 7701|
Phone: +27 21 650 5705
Fax: +27 21 650 5711
Web page: http://www.dpru.uct.ac.za
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeremy Wakeford, 2004. "The productivity-wage relationship in South Africa: an empirical investigation," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 109-132.
- Charlotte Toit & Reneéa Koekemoer, 2003. "A Labour Model For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 71(1), pages 49-76, 03.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- J D Lewis, 2002. "Promoting Growth and Employment in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(4), pages 338-358, 03.
- Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 1996. "The Standard Error of Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, March.
- L Edwards, 2001. "Globalisation And The Skills Bias Of Occupational Employment In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 69(1), pages 40-71, 03.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctw:wpaper:04085. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Waseema Petersen)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.