A Comparative Study of Structural Models of Corporate Bond Yields: An Exploratory Investigation
This paper empirically compares a variety of firm-value-based models of contingent claims. We formulate a general model which takes the perpetual coupon bond models of Merton (1974), Leland (1994) and Anderson, Sundaresan and Tychon (1996), as well as some immediate generalizations thereof, as special cases. We estimate these using aggregate time series data for the US corporate bond market, monthly, from August 1970 through December 1996. The data are average yields for industrial corporate bonds rated BBB, Treasury yields, leverage measures derived from the Flow of Funds Accounts, interest coverage measures derived from the National Income Accounts, and volatility measures derived from the stock market. In the basic specification with constant default free rates, we find that models with endogenous bankruptcy barriers (the Leland and the Anderson, Sundaresan and Tychon models) fit quite well. Thus, in these models, variations of leverage and asset volatility are found to account for much of the time-series variations of observed corporate yields. We then use the estimates to calculate the implied probability of default within N years. We find under plausible assumptions on the market risk-premium for levered firms that the models produce default probabilities for 5 years or more which are in line with the historical experience reported by Moodys.
|Date of creation:||01 Jul 1998|
|Date of revision:||00 Jan 1999|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Place Montesquieu 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)|
Fax: +32 10473945
Web page: http://www.uclouvain.be/ires
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June.
- Benjamin M. Friedman, 1985. "Corporate Capital Structures in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie85-1.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:1999009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne DAVISTER-LOGIST)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.