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Detecting Sparse Cointegration

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  • Gonzalo, Jesús
  • Pitarakis, Jean-Yves

Abstract

We propose a two-step procedure for detecting sparse cointegration in high-dimensional singleequation models. First, we employ the adaptive lasso to identify the subset of integrated covariates driving the long-run equilibrium relationship. Second, we adopt an information-theoretic criterion to distinguish between stationarity and nonstationarity in the resulting residuals, avoiding reliance on asymptotic distributions. A key theoretical contribution is demonstrating that this residualbased decision rule remains consistent regardless of the internal cointegration structure among the right-hand side predictors themselves. Monte Carlo experiments confirm the procedure'srobust finite-sample performance under endogeneity, serial correlation, and rank deficiency in the regressor matrix.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzalo, Jesús & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2026. "Detecting Sparse Cointegration," UC3M Working papers. Economics 49894, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:49894
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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