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Measuring the Probability of a Business Cycle Turning Point by Using a Multivariate Qualitative Hidden Markov Model

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  • Stéphane Grégoir

    (Crest)

  • Fabrice Lenglart

    (Crest)

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Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Grégoir & Fabrice Lenglart, 1998. "Measuring the Probability of a Business Cycle Turning Point by Using a Multivariate Qualitative Hidden Markov Model," Working Papers 98-48, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:98-48
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Vilder, Robin, 1996. "Complicated Endogenous Business Cycles under Gross Substitutability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 416-442, November.
    2. Cazzavillan, Guido & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Pintus, Patrick A., 1998. "Multiple Steady States and Endogenous Fluctuations with Increasing Returns to Scale in Production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 60-107, May.
    3. Reichlin, Pietro, 1986. "Equilibrium cycles in an overlapping generations economy with production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 89-102, October.
    4. Benhabib, Jess & Jafarey, Saqib & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1988. "The dynamics of efficient intertemporal allocations with many agents, recursive preferences, and production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, pages 301-320.
    5. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May.
    6. Benhabib, Jess & Laroque, Guy, 1988. "On competitive cycles in productive economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 145-170, June.
    7. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    8. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 128-137, October.
    9. Farmer, Roger E. A., 1986. "Deficits and cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 77-88, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hélène Baron & Guillaume Baron, 2002. "Un indicateur probabiliste de retournement conjoncturel dans la zone euro," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 359(1), pages 101-121.
    2. Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(3), pages 335-364, June.
    3. repec:crs:ecosta:es395-396e is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Éric Dubois, 2006. "Présentation générale," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 1-9.
    5. Benoit Bellone & David Saint-Martin, 2004. "Detecting Turning Points with Many Predictors through Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0407001, EconWPA.
    6. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2005. "Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth Using Firm-Level Survey Data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, pages 479-499.
    7. Benoît Bellone & Erwan Gautier & Sébastien Le Coent, 2006. "Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, pages 83-99.
    8. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Econometrics 0407002, EconWPA, revised 28 Mar 2005.
    9. Lars-Erik Öller & Lasse Koskinen, 2004. "A classifying procedure for signalling turning points," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 197-214.
    10. Yun-Ling Wu & Cheng-Huang Tung & Chun-Chang Lee, 2017. "The Power of a Leading Indicators Fluctuation Trend for Forecasting Taiwans Real Estate Business Cycle: An Application of a Hidden Markov Model," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 81-98, January.
    11. Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
    12. Adanero-Donderis , M. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2007. "Deux indicateurs probabilistes de retournement cyclique pour l’économie française," Working papers 187, Banque de France.
    13. L. Clavel & C. Minodier, 2009. "A Monthly Indicator of the French Business Climate," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2009-02, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
    14. Catherine Doz & Anna Petronevich, 2015. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points for the French Economy: a MS-DFM approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    15. Olivier Biau & Hélène Erkel-Rousse & Nicolas Ferrari, 2006. "Réponses individuelles aux enquêtes de conjoncture et prévision de la production manufacturière," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 395(1), pages 91-116.

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