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Scenarios for the Transition to AGI

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  • Korinek, Anton
  • Suh, Donghyun

Abstract

We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We assume that human work can be decomposed into atomistic tasks that differ in their complexity. Advances in technology make ever more complex tasks amenable to automation. The effects on wages depend on a race between automation and capital accumulation. If the distribution of task complexity exhibits a sufficiently thick infinite tail, then there is always enough work for humans, and wages may rise forever. By contrast, if the complexity of tasks that humans can perform is bounded and full automation is reached, then wages collapse. But declines may occur even before if large-scale automation outpaces capital accumulation and makes labor too abundant. Automating productivity growth may lead to broad-based gains in the returns to all factors. By contrast, bottlenecks to growth from irreproducible scarce factors may exacerbate the decline in wages.

Suggested Citation

  • Korinek, Anton & Suh, Donghyun, 2024. "Scenarios for the Transition to AGI," CEPR Discussion Papers 18928, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18928
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    2. Pascal Stiefenhofer, 2025. "Artificial General Intelligence and the Social Contract: A Dynamic Political Economy Model," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 4(3), pages 142-183, September.
    3. Casey O. Barkan, 2024. "Can an increase in productivity cause a decrease in production? Insights from a model economy with AI automation," Papers 2411.15718, arXiv.org.
    4. Quitz'e Valenzuela-Stookey, 2025. "Automation and Task Allocation Under Asymmetric Information," Papers 2511.02675, arXiv.org.
    5. Michael R. Douglas & Sergiy Verstyuk, 2025. "Progress in Artificial Intelligence and its Determinants," Papers 2501.17894, arXiv.org.
    6. Aldasoro, I. & Gambacorta, L. & Korinek, A. & Shreeti, V. & Stein, M., 2025. "Intelligent financial system: How AI is transforming finance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Maydell, Richard & Firth, John, 2025. "Tilting the Race Between Humans and AI: The Role of Education and Unemployment Policies," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325460, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Ali Merali, 2025. "Scaling Laws for Economic Productivity: Experimental Evidence in LLM-Assisted Consulting, Data Analyst, and Management Tasks," Papers 2512.21316, arXiv.org.
    9. Tatsuru Kikuchi, 2026. "The Innovation Tax: Generative AI Adoption, Productivity Paradox, and Systemic Risk in the U.S. Banking Sector," Papers 2602.02607, arXiv.org.
    10. Etheridge, Ben & Bharier, David & Morais, Paulo, 2026. "AI adoption and workforce change in SMEs," ISER Working Paper Series 2026-01, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    11. Gillian K. Hadfield & Andrew Koh, 2025. "An Economy of AI Agents," Papers 2509.01063, arXiv.org.
    12. Mark Fisher & John Severini, 2025. "Making AI Inevitable: Historical Perspective and the Problems of Predicting Long-Term Technological Change," Papers 2508.16692, arXiv.org.
    13. Gersbach, Hans & Komarov, Evgenij & von Maydell, Richard, 2025. "Artificial intelligence as self-learning capital," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    14. Leland D. Crane & Paul E. Soto, 2026. "AI and Coder Employment: Compiling the Evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2026-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Bekkers, Eddy & Humphreys, Lee & Kalachyhin, Hryhorii & Wilczynska, Karolina & Zhao, Danchen, 2025. "Through the looking glass: Artificial intelligence, international trade, and economic growth in the long run," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2025-09, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    16. Anton Korinek & Lee M. Lockwood, 2026. "Public Finance in the Age of AI: A Primer," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Transformative AI, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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