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The pandemic, cash and retail payment behaviour: insights from the future of payments database

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  • Auer, Raphael
  • Cornelli, Giulio
  • Frost, Jon

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has been a shock to retail payment behaviour. How have the changes differed across countries? What do they imply for the future of cash and digital payments? We assemble a new “Future of Payments†database on retail payment behaviour for up to 95 countries over September 2019 to June 2022. We compare this with measures of the severity of the Covid-19 pandemic, using variation in the timing of waves of cases, changes in mobility and lockdown measures across countries. We find that card-not-present payments, payment app downloads and the volume of cash in circulation all rose in weeks of more stringent lockdowns. Changes were less pronounced in countries with higher mobile penetration. However, recent data suggest that some effects reversed once lockdowns were eased, and mobility rebounded.

Suggested Citation

  • Auer, Raphael & Cornelli, Giulio & Frost, Jon, 2023. "The pandemic, cash and retail payment behaviour: insights from the future of payments database," CEPR Discussion Papers 18040, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18040
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    2. Justus Meyer & Federica Teppa, 2023. "Euro area consumers' payment behaviour and banking digitalisation," Working Papers 772, DNB.
    3. Martina Mate & Zvonimir Brizar, 2024. "Trends And Determinants Of Cash Usage In Non-Eurozone Eu Member States," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 33(1), pages 25-40, june.
    4. Alcedo, Joel & Cavallo, Alberto & Mishra, Prachi & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2025. "Back to trend: COVID effects on E-commerce in 44 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Jon Frost & Priscilla Koo Wilkens & Anneke Kosse & Vatsala Shreeti & Carolina Velásquez, 2024. "Fast payments: design and adoption," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    6. Doerr, Sebastian & Frost, Jon & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Shreeti, Vatsala, 2023. "Big techs in finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 18665, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Broekhoff, Marie-Claire & van der Cruijsen, Carin, 2024. "Paying in a blink of an eye: it hurts less, but you spend more," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 110-133.
    8. Jose Aurazo & Cecilia Franco & Jon Frost & Jamere McIntosh, 2025. "Fast payments and financial inclusion in Latin America and the Caribbean," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 153, May.
    9. Sarah Bell & Jon Frost & Boris Hofmann & Damiano Sandri & Hyun Song Shin, 2024. "Central bank capital and trust in money: lessons from history for the digital age," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 146, May.
    10. John E. Marthinsen & Steven R. Gordon, 2024. "Synthetic Central Bank Digital Currencies and Systemic Liquidity Risks," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, February.
    11. Carbó-Valverde, Santiago & Cuadros-Solas, Pedro J. & Rodríguez-Fernández, Francisco & Sánchez-Béjar, José Juan, 2023. "Mobility restrictions and payment choices: The case of the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    12. Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost & Jonathan Warren & Clair Yang & Carolina Velásquez, 2024. "Retail fast payment systems as a catalyst for digital finance," BIS Working Papers 1228, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Ivan Radanovic, 2024. "Payment systems migration to the ISO 20022 electronic messaging standard," Working Papers Bulletin 20, National Bank of Serbia.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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