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Population Ageing, Retirement Age Extension and Economic Growth in China A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Xiujian Peng
  • Yinhua Mai

Abstract

China is experiencing rapid population ageing with the proportion of the population aged 65 and above projected to increase almost threefold between 2010 and 2050. The growth of the working age population is expected to stop approximately in 2015 and to turn strongly negative. China's low retirement age compounds the ageing problem. One means to mitigate the negative effects of shrinking labour force on economic growth is to stimulate labour force participation among the current working age population. Raising the official retirement age is one strategy to encourage labour force participation. This paper first investigates the effects of population ageing on labour force participation rates and, thus, on labour supply over the period of 2010-2030. It then estimates the effects of retirement age extension schemes on the size of the labour force. Thirdly, applying dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling, it examines the effects of retirement age extension schemes on China's economic growth. It finds that raising the retirement age increases effective labour input, real GDP, capital stock, household real consumption and exports. The main results are that retirement age extension is likely to boost China's economic growth and that both urban and rural sectors will benefit from the extension.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiujian Peng & Yinhua Mai, 2013. "Population Ageing, Retirement Age Extension and Economic Growth in China A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-237, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-237
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yinhua mai & Xiujian Peng & Wei Chen, 2009. "How fast is population ageing in China?," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-208, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. Yinhua Mai & Xiujian Peng & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2009. "The effects of facilitating the flow of rural workers to urban employment in China," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-188, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Bob Dugan & Benoît Robidoux, 1999. "Demographic Shifts and Labour Force Participation Rates in Canada," A Symposium on Canadian Labour Force Participation in the 1990s (Special Issue of Canadian Business Economics, Volume 7, Number 2, May 1999),in: Andrew Sharpe & Louis Grignon (ed.), A Symposium on Canadian Labour Force Participation in the 1990s (Special Issue of Canadian Business Economics, Volume 7, Number 2, May 1999), pages 42-56 Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population ageing; retirement age extension; economic growth; CGE model;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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