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L'impact du mix fiscal sur la croissance économique des provinces canadiennes, 19812010

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  • François Vaillancourt
  • Pouya Ebrahimi

Abstract

Cette étude utilise les recettes fiscales provinciales de la taxe à la consommation, de l'impôt sur le revenu corporatif et de l'impôt sur le revenu personnel pour mesurer l'impact de la taxation sur le taux de croissance du produit intérieur brut (PIB) des provinces canadiennes pour la période de 1981 à 2010. Les estimations suggèrent que l'impôt sur le revenu corporatif et la taxe à la consommation ont un effet négatif sur le taux de croissance du PIB par rapport à l'impôt sur le revenu personnel. De plus, l'analyse empirique des déterminants de la croissance économique des provinces canadiennes indique que le niveau initial du PIB a un effet significatif sur l'évolution du taux de croissance du PIB pour les périodes subséquentes. Ce résultat confirme l'existence de la convergence conditionnelle à l'échelle des provinces au Canada : les provinces de l'Atlantique, dont le PIB réel par habitant était le plus faible au Canada en 1961, ont connu la croissance économique la plus importante par rapport au reste des provinces canadiennes pour la période de 1981 à 2010. Par ailleurs, l'ouverture au commerce, c'est-à-dire le ratio de la somme des exportations et des importations provinciales sur le PIB, se manifeste comme un autre facteur significatif au progrès économique des provinces canadiennes. Le rapport examine aussi la robustesse des résultats obtenus en appliquant plusieurs spécifications alternatives au modèle de base. Les estimations sont robustes aux différentes spécifications.

Suggested Citation

  • François Vaillancourt & Pouya Ebrahimi, 2013. "L'impact du mix fiscal sur la croissance économique des provinces canadiennes, 19812010," CIRANO Project Reports 2013rp-03, CIRANO.
  • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirpro:2013rp-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric M. Engen & Jonathan Skinner, 1996. "Taxation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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