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L'impact du mix fiscal sur la croissance économique des provinces canadiennes, 19812010

Listed author(s):
  • François Vaillancourt
  • Pouya Ebrahimi
Registered author(s):

    Cette étude utilise les recettes fiscales provinciales de la taxe à la consommation, de l'impôt sur le revenu corporatif et de l'impôt sur le revenu personnel pour mesurer l'impact de la taxation sur le taux de croissance du produit intérieur brut (PIB) des provinces canadiennes pour la période de 1981 à 2010. Les estimations suggèrent que l'impôt sur le revenu corporatif et la taxe à la consommation ont un effet négatif sur le taux de croissance du PIB par rapport à l'impôt sur le revenu personnel. De plus, l'analyse empirique des déterminants de la croissance économique des provinces canadiennes indique que le niveau initial du PIB a un effet significatif sur l'évolution du taux de croissance du PIB pour les périodes subséquentes. Ce résultat confirme l'existence de la convergence conditionnelle à l'échelle des provinces au Canada : les provinces de l'Atlantique, dont le PIB réel par habitant était le plus faible au Canada en 1961, ont connu la croissance économique la plus importante par rapport au reste des provinces canadiennes pour la période de 1981 à 2010. Par ailleurs, l'ouverture au commerce, c'est-à-dire le ratio de la somme des exportations et des importations provinciales sur le PIB, se manifeste comme un autre facteur significatif au progrès économique des provinces canadiennes. Le rapport examine aussi la robustesse des résultats obtenus en appliquant plusieurs spécifications alternatives au modèle de base. Les estimations sont robustes aux différentes spécifications.

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    Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Project Reports with number 2013rp-03.

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    Length: 44 pages
    Date of creation: 01 Feb 2013
    Handle: RePEc:cir:cirpro:2013rp-03
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    1. Eric M. Engen & Jonathan Skinner, 1996. "Taxation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Widmalm, Frida, 2001. "Tax Structure and Growth: Are Some Taxes Better Than Others?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 107(3-4), pages 199-219, June.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    4. Engen, Eric M. & Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "Taxation and Economic Growth," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 617-642, December.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    6. Jens Matthias Arnold & Bert Brys & Christopher Heady & Åsa Johansson & Cyrille Schwellnus & Laura Vartia, 2011. "Tax Policy for Economic Recovery and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages 59-80, February.
    7. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    8. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    9. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Roubini, Nouriel, 1998. "Growth Effects of Income and Consumption Taxes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 721-744, November.
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