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The 14th Five-year Plan in the New Era of China’s Reform Asian Integration, Belt and Road Initiative and Safeguarding Multilateralism

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  • Michel Aglietta
  • Guo Bai
  • Camille Macaire

Abstract

China’s 14th Five-Year Plan aims to inaugurate a structural change from intensive accumulation to innovation-driven growth, with two basic objectives: developing the domestic consumer market for an enlarged middle class, on the one hand; on the other, promoting the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This is the “dual circulation” towards the 2035 long-run objective of achieving a socialist market economy, embedded into an “Eco civilization”. Concerning the domestic part of the strategy, China is pledging innovations combining political ecology and digital economy to handle climate change in pursuing an upgraded commitment to the Paris Agreement. For this ultimate goal, R&D spending is being strategically reinforced. The international part aims at restructuring globalization towards a new geopolitical order. It is structured in three hierarchically intertwined steps. The first is the economic integration of Asia within the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the largest trade agreement worldwide. The second level is the diversified network of infrastructures linking Asia, Africa and Europe along and around the old Silk Roads. The third part is the transcontinental network linking the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans through the Artic Road and the Central and Latin America networks. To succeed, this monumental project needs multilateral cooperation to overcome the huge financial leverage it is generating. Trust will be of the essence in attracting private capital. A tentative advance in Sino-European cooperation has been occurring within an agreement to expand mutual investment opportunities. All in all, China is looking for a strategic repositioning into the global multilateral framework so that the Middle Empire returns to the center of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Aglietta & Guo Bai & Camille Macaire, 2021. "The 14th Five-year Plan in the New Era of China’s Reform Asian Integration, Belt and Road Initiative and Safeguarding Multilateralism," CEPII Policy Brief 2021-36, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepipb:2021-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bandiera,Luca & Tsiropoulos,Vasileios, 2019. "A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Risks under the Belt and Road Initiative," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8891, The World Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dual circulation; Belt and Road initiative; Go West; Central bank Digital Currency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N55 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N75 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P41 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform

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