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Real-Time COVID-19 Projections in Tokyo: Lessons for Future Pandemics

Author

Listed:
  • Jianing Chu

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Hongtao Li

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Taisuke Nakata

    (University of Tokyo)

Abstract

We examine the properties of five real-time COVID-19 infection projections in Tokyo. We find that projections tended to be (i) pessimistic, (ii) less accurate during the fifth infection wave, and (iii) optimistic before the peak and pessimistic after the peak. If policymakers and the public were to utilize real-time projections in future pandemics, it would be useful for them to be aware of the properties of these projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianing Chu & Hongtao Li & Taisuke Nakata, 2026. "Real-Time COVID-19 Projections in Tokyo: Lessons for Future Pandemics," CARF F-Series CARF-F-623, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf623
    as

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    File URL: https://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/wp/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/F623.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daisuke Fujii & Taisuke Nakata, 2021. "COVID-19 and output in Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 609-650, October.
    2. Michael Lingzhi Li & Hamza Tazi Bouardi & Omar Skali Lami & Thomas A. Trikalinos & Nikolaos Trichakis & Dimitris Bertsimas, 2023. "Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 71(1), pages 184-201, January.
    3. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2022. "Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 453-466.
    4. Matt J. Keeling & Louise Dyson & Michael J. Tildesley & Edward M. Hill & Samuel Moore, 2022. "Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.
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