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Implications of EU Accession for International Migration: An Assessment of Potential Migration Pressure

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  • Anzelika Zaiceva

Abstract

This paper estimates the potential migration from eight EU accession countries as well as Bulgaria and Romania as a result of the eastern enlargement. The experience of migration from Greece, Portugal and Spain is used to estimate the parameters of a migration function, exploiting panel estimation techniques. The results from the models are then used for so-called double out of sample extrapolations - for ten countries that are not within the estimated sample and for the time period in the future. It was found that potential migration flows from central and eastern Europe will be modest. Moreover, legal introduction of free movement of workers seems not to increase migration significantly, contrary to what one might expect.

Suggested Citation

  • Anzelika Zaiceva, 2004. "Implications of EU Accession for International Migration: An Assessment of Potential Migration Pressure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1184, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1184
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1184.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2002. "EU Enlargement and the Future of the Welfare State," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(1), pages 104-115, February.
    2. Thomas Straubhaar, 2001. "East-West migration: Will it be a problem?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 36(1), pages 1-2, January.
    3. László Mátyás, 1998. "The Gravity Model: Some Econometric Considerations," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 397-401, May.
    4. Kraus, Margit & Schwager, Robert, 2000. "EU enlargement and immigration," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-09, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    5. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
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    Keywords

    international migration; migration projections; EU enlargement; panel estimation;

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