IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_11747.html

Climate Policies, Energy Shocks and Spillovers Between Green and Brown Stock Price Indices

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Albanese
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Ida Colella
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of climate policies and energy shocks on mean and volatility spillovers between green and brown stock price indices in five countries (Canada, India, Japan, the UK and the US). More specifically, bivariate GARCH-BEKK models including dummy variables controlling for these shocks are estimated using weekly series with start dates ranging from 13 March 2009 to 24 August 2012 (depending on data availability for the green index) and an end date of 29 December 2023. Significant dynamic linkages between green and brown indices are found when climate policy and oil shocks are considered jointly. Some common patterns emerge, such as shifts in spillover dynamics between green and brown assets, but also country-specific effects of the climate policy shocks which reflect differences in regulatory frameworks and policies. By contrast, energy shocks tend to have a more uniform impact. Further, the interaction between climate policy and energy shocks weakens cross-market linkages, enhancing portfolio diversification opportunities for green investors. The conditional correlation analysis confirms this finding, suggesting that green stocks can be used as an effective hedge. These results highlight the benefits of incorporating green assets into diversified portfolios, particularly in financial centers where, in recent years, they have offered higher returns and lower volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Albanese & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Ida Colella & Nicola Spagnolo, 2025. "Climate Policies, Energy Shocks and Spillovers Between Green and Brown Stock Price Indices," CESifo Working Paper Series 11747, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11747
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11747.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Farid, Saqib & Karim, Sitara & Naeem, Muhammad A. & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2023. "Co-movement between dirty and clean energy: A time-frequency perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Bua, Giovanna & Kapp, Daniel & Ramella, Federico & Rognone, Lavinia, 2022. "Transition versus physical climate risk pricing in European financial markets: a text-based approach," Working Paper Series 2677, European Central Bank.
    4. Monasterolo, Irene & de Angelis, Luca, 2020. "Blind to carbon risk? An analysis of stock market reaction to the Paris Agreement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    5. Shah, Imran Hussain & Hiles, Charlie & Morley, Bruce, 2018. "How do oil prices, macroeconomic factors and policies affect the market for renewable energy?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 87-97.
    6. Azhgaliyeva, Dina & Kapsalyamova, Zhanna & Mishra, Ranjeeta, 2022. "Oil price shocks and green bonds: An empirical evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    8. Yiyang Chen & Rogemar Mamon & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2023. "Sustainable developments, renewable energy, and economic growth in Canada," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 2950-2966, August.
    9. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Connectivity and spillover during crises: Highlighting the prominent and growing role of green energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Gauthier, Marie & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Which is leading: Renewable or brown energy assets?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    12. Nguyen, Cuong & Ishaq Bhatti, M. & Henry, Darren, 2017. "Are Vietnam and Chinese stock markets out of the US contagion effect in extreme events?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 480(C), pages 10-21.
    13. Ouyang, Zi-sheng & Liu, Meng-tian & Huang, Su-su & Yao, Ting, 2022. "Does the source of oil price shocks matter for the systemic risk?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Gehricke, Sebastian A. & Roberts, Helen & Zhang, Renzhu, 2021. "Trump vs. Paris: The impact of climate policy on U.S. listed oil and gas firm returns and volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    15. Gazzani, Andrea & Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2024. "Oil price shocks in real time," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    16. Chen, Yiyang & Mamon, Rogemar & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2025. "Stock market returns and climate risk in the U.S," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Guo, Kun & Li, Yichong & Zhang, Yunhan & Chen, Yingtong & Ma, Yanran, 2024. "Cross-country risk spillovers of ESG stock indices: Dynamic patterns and the role of climate transition risks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    18. Marina Albanese & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Ida Colella & Nicola Spagnolo, 2024. "Climate Physical Risk and Asian Stock Market Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 11222, CESifo.
    19. Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Spillovers in the joint system of conditional higher-order moments: US evidence from green energy, brown energy, and technology stocks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 507-523.
    20. Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy & Mo, Di & Gupta, Rakesh, 2017. "The effects of stock market growth and renewable energy use on CO2 emissions: Evidence from G20 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 360-371.
    21. David Ardia & Keven Bluteau & Kris Boudt & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2023. "Climate Change Concerns and the Performance of Green vs. Brown Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7607-7632, December.
    22. Al Rahahleh, Naseem & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2017. "Co-movement measure of information transmission on international equity markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 470(C), pages 119-131.
    23. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Spagnolo, Nicola & Almajali, Awon, 2023. "Connectedness between fossil and renewable energy stock indices: The impact of the COP policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    24. Haohua Li & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Libing Fang, 2023. "Return Volatility, Correlation, and Hedging of Green and Brown Stocks: Is there a Role for Climate Risk Factors?," Working Papers 202301, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    25. Bogmans, Christian & Pescatori, Andrea & Prifti, Ervin, 2024. "The impact of climate policy on oil and gas investment: Evidence from firm-level data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    26. Ferrer, Román & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & López, Raquel & Jareño, Francisco, 2018. "Time and frequency dynamics of connectedness between renewable energy stocks and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-20.
    27. Husain, Shaiara & Sohag, Kazi & Wu, Yanrui, 2022. "The response of green energy and technology investment to climate policy uncertainty: An application of twin transitions strategy," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    28. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Jingyao & He, Feng & Lucey, Brian, 2023. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on traditional energy and green markets: Evidence from time-varying granger tests," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    29. Raza, Syed Ali & Khan, Komal Akram & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Guesmi, Khaled, 2024. "The importance of climate policy uncertainty in forecasting the green, clean and sustainable financial markets volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    30. Robert F Engle & Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly & Heebum Lee & Johannes Stroebel, 2020. "Hedging Climate Change News," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1184-1216.
    31. Cepni, Oguzhan & Demirer, Riza & Rognone, Lavinia, 2022. "Hedging climate risks with green assets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    32. Pham, Linh, 2019. "Do all clean energy stocks respond homogeneously to oil price?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 355-379.
    33. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 131-158.
    34. Olivier de Bandt & Laura‐Chloé Kuntz & Nora Pankratz & Fulvio Pegoraro & Haakon Solheim & Gregory Sutton & Azusa Takeyama & Fan Dora Xia, 2025. "The effects of climate change‐related risks on banks: A literature review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 1553-1594, September.
    35. Emanuele Campiglio & Yannis Dafermos & Pierre Monnin & Josh Ryan-Collins & Guido Schotten & Misa Tanaka, 2018. "Climate change challenges for central banks and financial regulators," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 462-468, June.
    36. Bouri, Elie & Iqbal, Najaf & Klein, Tony, 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and the price dynamics of green and brown energy stocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    37. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    38. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Simona Malovana & Caterina Mendicino, 2023. "How Do Climate Policies Affect Holdings of Green and Brown Firms' Securities?," Working Papers 2023/11, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    39. Hanif, Waqas & Teplova, Tamara & Rodina, Victoria & Alomari, Mohammed & Mensi, Walid, 2023. "Volatility spillovers and frequency dependence between oil price shocks and green stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    40. Wu, Ruirui & Li, Bin & Qin, Zhongfeng, 2024. "Spillovers and dependency between green finance and traditional energy markets under different market conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    41. Tiantian Liu & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Spillovers to Renewable Energy Stocks in the US and Europe: Are They Different?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-28, June.
    42. Albanese, Marina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Colella, Ida & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2025. "The effects of physical and transition climate risk on stock markets: Some multi-Country evidence," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Puławska, Karolina & Sikora, Artur & Snarska, Małgorzata & Strzelczyk, Wojciech, 2026. "Macro risks and their impact on insurer stock prices: Analyzing climate, geopolitical, and cybersecurity risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Iqbal, Najaf & Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Alsagr, Naif, 2024. "Asymmetric impacts of Chinese climate policy uncertainty on Chinese asset prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Abiodun Moses Adetokunbo & Afe Success Mevhare, 2024. "The interconnectivity between green stocks, oil prices, and uncertainty surrounding economic policy: indications from the United States," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 1-26, February.
    3. Yan, Wan-Lin & Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong), 2025. "Quantile connectedness among climate policy uncertainty, news sentiment, oil and renewables in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Kuang, Wei, 2025. "A tale of two risks: Differential diversification roles of clean energy sector stocks in physical and transition climate risk management," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    5. Cao, Yan & Zhang, Zongyou & Chen, Yilei & Cheng, Sheng, 2026. "Systemic risk spillovers between fossil and clean energy under climate risks: New evidence from a multi-moment connectedness network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 347(C).
    6. Chiang, Thomas C., 2025. "The effect of climate policy uncertainty and induced risks on US aggregate and sectoral stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Özer, Zeynep Sueda & Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2024. "How does the time-varying dynamics of spillover between clean and brown energy ETFs change with the intervention of climate risk and climate policy uncertainty?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 442-468.
    8. Wang, Yihan & Goutte, Stephane & Bouri, Elie & Sokhanvar, Amin, 2024. "Climate risks and the realized higher-order moments of financial markets: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 1064-1087.
    9. Guo, Kun & Li, Yichong & Zhang, Yunhan & Chen, Yingtong & Ma, Yanran, 2024. "Cross-country risk spillovers of ESG stock indices: Dynamic patterns and the role of climate transition risks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    10. Basher, Syed Abul & Sadorsky, Perry, 2024. "Do climate change risks affect the systemic risk between the stocks of clean energy, electric vehicles, and critical minerals? Analysis under changing market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Pham, Son D. & Nguyen, Thao T.T. & Do, Hung X., 2024. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on return spillover among green assets and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Qiao, Sen & Chang, Yuan & Mai, Xi Xi & Dang, Yi Jing, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty, clean energy and energy metals: A quantile time-frequency spillover study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. Yan, Jingjing & Wang, Kun & Ma, Pan, 2026. "The impact of public climate sentiment on systemic risk: Evidence from commodity and stock market systems," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    14. Li, Jie & Han, Yingwei, 2025. "Nonlinear hedging climate policy uncertainty: A dynamic mixed copula approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    15. Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Koulmas, Pavlos & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2026. "From Paris to Pandemic: How climate risk and policy uncertainty shapes fossil and clean Energy commodities," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    16. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Asingamaanda Liphadzi & Christian Pierdzioch, 2026. "Forecasting the volatility of stock returns in the G7 countries over centuries: the role of climate risks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 50(1), pages 1-32, December.
    17. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Connectivity and spillover during crises: Highlighting the prominent and growing role of green energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    18. Wu, Jiawen & Li, Jing-Ping & Su, Chi-Wei, 2024. "Can green bond hedges climate policy uncertainty in the United States: New insights from novel time-varying causality and quantile-on-quantile methods?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1158-1176.
    19. Naseer, Mirza Muhammad & Guo, Yongsheng & Bagh, Tanveer & Zhu, Xiaoxian, 2024. "Sustainable investments in volatile times: Nexus of climate change risk, ESG practices, and market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    20. Cerqueti, Roy & Stefanelli, Kevyn, 2025. "Spotlighting energy sector through green transition attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11747. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.