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Dodging Trade Sanctions? Evidence from Military Goods

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Listed:
  • Lisa Scheckenhofer
  • Feodora A. Teti
  • Joschka Wanner
  • Feodora Teti
  • Feodora Teti

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to unprecedented sanctions aimed at denying Russia access to critical technologies essential for sustaining its war efforts. This paper examines whether trade sanctions targeting military goods were undermined by evasion, specifically through transshipment through Russia-friendly countries. We find that Russia-friendly countries are 20 pp more likely to export military goods to Russia relative to neutral countries after the war began, while exports of military goods from Western allies to these countries also increased. Our results show that weak enforcement significantly undermines the effectiveness of sanctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisa Scheckenhofer & Feodora A. Teti & Joschka Wanner & Feodora Teti & Feodora Teti, 2025. "Dodging Trade Sanctions? Evidence from Military Goods," CESifo Working Paper Series 11743, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11743
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Raymond Fisman & Peter Moustakerski & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "Outsourcing Tariff Evasion: A New Explanation for Entrepôt Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 587-592, August.
    2. Vasily Astrov & Feodora Teti & Lisa Scheckenhofer & Camille Semelet, 2024. "Monitoring the Impact of Sanctions on the Russian Economy Vol. 3," EconPol Policy Reports 51, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. T. Clifton Morgan & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2023. "Economic Sanctions: Evolution, Consequences, and Challenges," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 3-30, Winter.
    4. Hinz, Julian & Monastyrenko, Evgenii, 2022. "Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2020. "Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 97-146.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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