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The Effectiveness of EU Export Bans on Military Goods

Author

Listed:
  • Lisa Scheckenhofer
  • Feodora Teti
  • David Torun
  • Joschka Wanner

Abstract

Key MessagesEU military export bans in 2022-23 were less effective due to gaps in the sanction regimeOnce these gaps were closed, direct EU exports to Russia ceased, but sanctions were circumvented via indirect routesExport bans raised trade costs by only 19 percent, far below the prohibitive levels implied by a fully enforced banStronger enforcement and political pressure on intermediary countries in early 2024 reduced exports to eight percent of pre-war levelComprehensive enforcement can substantially constrain Russiaʼs access to critical inputs

Suggested Citation

  • Lisa Scheckenhofer & Feodora Teti & David Torun & Joschka Wanner, 2026. "The Effectiveness of EU Export Bans on Military Goods," EconPol Policy Brief 80, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:econpb:_80
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/EconPol_PolicyBrief_80.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lisa Scheckenhofer & Feodora A. Teti & Joschka Wanner, 2025. "Dodging Trade Sanctions? Evidence from Military Goods," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 115, pages 573-577, May.
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