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The Stagnation of Household Consumption in Japan

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  • Charles Yuji Horioka

Abstract

In this paper, I consider the extent to which the stagnation of household consumption is responsible for the decade-long recession in Japan during the 1990s and early 2000s and the reasons for the stagnation of household consumption during this period and find that the stagnation of private investment (and inventory investment) rather than that of household consumption was the major cause of the decade-long recession, that household consumption was nonetheless relatively stagnant during this decade, and that the stagnation of household consumption was due primarily to the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth (which in turn was due primarily to the collapse of land and equity prices), and to a lesser extent, increased uncertainty about the future (especially about old age in general and old-age pensions in particular), the deterioration of future prospects, and deflationary expectations concerning consumer prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Yuji Horioka, 2004. "The Stagnation of Household Consumption in Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 1133, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1133
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Saito, Makoto & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2003. "Precautionary Motives versus Waiting Options: Evidence from Aggregate Household Saving in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 1-20, October.
    2. C. Y. Horioka & H. Fujisaki & W. Watanabe & T. Kouno, 2000. "Are Americans More Altruistic than the Japanese? A U.S.-Japan Comparison of Saving and Bequest Motives," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31.
    3. Horioka, Charles Yuji & Watanabe, Wako, 1997. "Why Do People Save? A Micro-Analysis of Motives for Household Saving in Japan," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 537-552, May.
    4. Horioka, C.Y., 1999. "Japan's Public Pension System in the Twenty-First Century," ISER Discussion Paper 0482, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    5. Zhou, Yanfei, 2003. "Precautionary saving and earnings uncertainty in Japan: A household-level analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 192-212, June.
    6. Murata, Keiko, 2003. "Precautionary Savings and Income Uncertainty: Evidence from Japanese Micro Data," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 21-52, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ogawa, Kazuo & Wan, Junmin, 2007. "Household debt and consumption: A quantitative analysis based on household micro data for Japan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 127-142, June.

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