The Choice of Input-Out Table Embedded in Regional Econometric Input-Out Models
In this paper we investigate the role of input-output data source in the regional econometric input-output models. While there has been a great deal of experimentation focused on the accuracy of alternative methods for estimating regional input-output coefficients, little attention has been directed to the role of accuracy when the input-output system is nested within a broader accounting framework. The issues of accuracy were considered in two contexts, forecasting and impact analysis focusing on a model developed for the Chicago Region. We experimented with three input-output data sources: observed regional data, national input-output, and randomly generated input-output coefficients. The effects of different sources of input-output data on regional econometric input-output model revealed that there are significant differences in results obtained in impact analyses. However, the adjustment processes inherent in the econometric input-output system seem to mute the initial differences in input- output data when the model is used for forecasting. Since applications of these types of models involve both impact and forecasting exercises, there would still seem to be a strong motivation for basing the system on the most accurate set of input-output accounts.
|Date of creation:||Jan 1994|
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- Katz, Joseph L & Burford, Roger L, 1985. "Shortcut Formulas for Output, Income and Employment Multipliers," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 61-76, July.
- G J D Hewings, 1977. "Evaluating the possibilities for exchanging regional input - output coefficients," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 9(8), pages 927-944, August.
- Hewings, Geoffrey J. D., 1984. "The role of prior information in updating regional input-output models," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 319-336.
- Philip R. Israilevich & Ramamohan Mahidhara, 1991. "Hog butchers no longer: 20 years of employment change in metropolitan Chicago," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Mar, pages 2-13.
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