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China’s Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Future Trajectories and Mitigation Options and Potential

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  • Lin, Jiang
  • Khanna, Nina
  • Liu, Xu
  • Teng, Fei
  • Wang, Xin

Abstract

Forecasts indicate that China's non-carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase rapidly from the 2014 baseline of 2 billion metric tons of CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 e). Previous studies of the potential for mitigating non-CO 2 GHG emissions in China have focused on timeframes through only 2030, or only on certain sectors or gases. This study uses a novel bottom-up end-use model to estimate mitigation of China's non-CO 2 GHGs under a Mitigation Scenario whereby today's cost-effective and technologically feasible CO 2 and non-CO 2 mitigation measures are deployed through 2050. The study determines that future non-CO 2 GHG emissions are driven largely by industrial and agricultural sources and that China could reduce those emissions by 47% by 2050 while enabling total GHG emissions to peak by 2023. Except for F-gas mitigation, few national or sectoral policies have focused on reducing non-CO 2 GHGs. Policy, market, and other institutional support are needed to realize the cost-effective mitigation potentials identified in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Jiang & Khanna, Nina & Liu, Xu & Teng, Fei & Wang, Xin, 2019. "China’s Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Future Trajectories and Mitigation Options and Potential," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt05z9b5pq, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt05z9b5pq
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andy Haines & Markus Amann & Nathan Borgford-Parnell & Sunday Leonard & Johan Kuylenstierna & Drew Shindell, 2017. "Short-lived climate pollutant mitigation and the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(12), pages 863-869, December.
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