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Migration Restrictions and Criminal Behavior: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

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  • Giovanni Mastrobuoni
  • Paolo Pinotti

Abstract

We estimate the causal effect of immigrants' legal status on criminal behavior exploiting exogenous variation in migration restrictions across nationalities driven by the last round of the European Union enlargement. Unique individual-level data on a collective clemency bill enacted in Italy five months before the enlargement allow us to compare the post-release criminal record of inmates from new EU member countries with a control group of pardoned inmates from candidate EU member countries. Difference-in-differences in the probability of re-arrest between the two groups before and after the enlargement show that obtaining legal status lowers the recidivism of economically motivated offenders, but only in areas that provide relatively better labor market opportunities to legal immigrants. We provide a search-theoretic model of criminal behavior that is consistent with these results.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Mastrobuoni & Paolo Pinotti, 2011. "Migration Restrictions and Criminal Behavior: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 208, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    • Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:208
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ciro Avitabile & Irma Clots-Figueras & Paolo Masella, 2013. "The Effect of Birthright Citizenship on Parental Integration Outcomes," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 777-810.
    2. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:648:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Brian Bell, 2019. "Crime and immigration," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-33, January.
    4. Megalokonomou, Rigissa & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2023. "The effects of exposure to refugees on crime: Evidence from the Greek islands," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Giovanni Mastrobuoni & Paolo Pinotti, 2015. "Legal Status and the Criminal Activity of Immigrants," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 175-206, April.
    6. Emanuele Bracco & Luisanna Onnis, 2022. "Immigration, amnesties, and the shadow economy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 1135-1162, October.
    7. Jan-Jan Soon, 2018. "Effects of EU Expansion on Migrants Employment and Income: A Natural Experiment," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(1), pages 113-128.
    8. Christian Dustmann & Francesco Fasani & Biagio Speciale, 2017. "Illegal Migration and Consumption Behavior of Immigrant Households," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 654-691.
    9. Huang, Yue & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2019. "Immigration and Crimes against Natives: The 2015 Refugee Crisis in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 12469, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Christian Dustmann & Francesco Fasani & Biagio Speciale, 2017. "Illegal Migration and Consumption Behavior of Immigrant Households," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 654-691.
    11. Brian Bell & Stephen Machin, 2013. "Immigration and crime," Chapters, in: Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, chapter 19, pages 353-372, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Scott Baker, 2013. "Effects of Immigrant Legalization on Crime: The 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act," Discussion Papers 12-012, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    13. Deole, Sumit S. & Huang, Yue, 2020. "How do new immigration flows affect existing immigrants? Evidence from the refugee crisis in Germany," GLO Discussion Paper Series 579, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; crime; legal status;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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