Value at Risk: A Comparative Analysis
study develops a comparative analysis concerning Value at Risk measure for a portfolio consisting of three stocks traded at Bucharest Stock Exchange. The analysis set out from 1-day, 1% VaR and has been extended in two directions: the volatility models and the distributions which are used when computing VaR. Thus, the historical volatility, the EWMA volatility model, GARCHtype models for the volatility of the stocks and of the portfolio and a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model were considered while VaR was computed using, apart from the standard normal distribution, different approaches for taking into account the non-normality of the returns (such as the Cornish-Fisher approximation, the modeling of the empirical distribution of the standardized returns and the Extreme Value Theory approach). The results indicate that using conditional volatility models and distributional tools that account for the non-normality of the returns leads to a better VaR-based risk management. For the considered portfolio VaR computed on the basis of a GARCH (1,1) model for the volatility of the portfolio returns where the standardized returns are modeled using the generalized hyperbolic distribution seems to be the best compromise between precision, capital coverage levels and the required amount of calculations. Moreover, the Expected Shortfall risk measure offers very good precision results in all approaches, but at the cost of rather high capital coverage levels.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.dofin.ase.ro/carfib/Email:
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001.
"Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH,"
NBER Working Papers
8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Suleyman Basak & Alexander Shapiro, 1999.
"Value-at-Risk Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices,"
New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires
99-032, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Basak, Suleyman & Shapiro, Alexander, 2001. "Value-at-Risk-Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 371-405.
- Suleyman Basak & Alex Shapiro, . "Value-at-Risk Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 6-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Suleyman Basak & Alex Shapiro, . "Value-at-Risk Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 06-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993.
"On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks,"
157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
- R. F. Engle & A. J. Patton, 2001. "What good is a volatility model?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 237-245.
- Engle, Robert F, 2000. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation - A Simple Class of Multivariate GARCH Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt56j4143f, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cab:wpaefr:25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ciprian Necula)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ciprian Necula to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.