IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bic/opaper/4.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stagflation in Latvia: How Long, How Far, How Deep?

Author

Listed:
  • Alf Vanags

    () (Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS))

  • Morten Hansen

    () (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga))

Abstract

What a difference a year makes. Our previous report, from June 2007, focussed on overheating of the Latvian economy and rising inflation. Now, some 14 months later, the Latvian economy has entered recession as measured by two consecutive quarters of seasonally adjusted GDP decline. At the same time the latest inflation rate is down from the peak observed in May of this year. Thus the issues to be discussed in this year’s report are somewhat different. In particular we raise five questions – questions we believe should be at the forefront of the economic-political debate in Latvia: 1) Has inflation indeed spiked? 2) Is disinflation (i.e. the rate of decline in inflation) likely to be fast or slow? 3) Why has the Latvian inflation experience been so much worse than elsewhere e.g. the two other Baltic countries? 4) How deep a recession – permitting the use of that concept – will Latvia experience? 5) How long will it take for the economy to recover?

Suggested Citation

  • Alf Vanags & Morten Hansen, 2008. "Stagflation in Latvia: How Long, How Far, How Deep?," SSE Riga/BICEPS Occasional Papers 4, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS);Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
  • Handle: RePEc:bic:opaper:4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://biceps.org/assets/docs/neregulara-rakstura/OccasionalPaperNo4
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stockman, Alan C., 1988. "Sectoral and national aggregate disturbances to industrial output in seven European countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 387-409.
    2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?," NBER Working Papers 13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alf Vanags & Morten Hansen, 2007. "Inflation in Latvia: causes, prospects and consequences," SSE Riga/BICEPS Occasional Papers 2, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS);Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
    4. Brooks, Robin & Del Negro, Marco, 2004. "The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 659-680, December.
    5. Marimon, Ramon & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1998. "'Actual' versus 'virtual' employment in Europe Is Spain different?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 123-153, January.
    6. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 317-334, December.
    8. Ashoka Mody & Franziska L Ohnsorge, 2007. "Can Domestic Policies Influence Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 07/257, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Alf Vanags & Morten Hansen, 2006. "Inflation in the Baltic States and Other EU New Member States: Similarities, Differences and Adoption of the Euro," SSE Riga/BICEPS Occasional Papers 1, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS);Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
    10. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 25(Win), pages 2-11.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. J. F. Li & Z. X. Lin, 2016. "Social benefit expenditures and stagflation: evidence from the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(55), pages 5340-5347, November.
    2. Trond-Arne Borgersen & Roswitha M. King, 2011. "Inflation in Latvia," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 26-53, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bic:opaper:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lelde Jakobsone). General contact details of provider: http://www.biceps.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.