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Descripción, antecedentes y riesgo fiscal y macroeconómico del Proyecto de Acto Legislativo que modifica el Sistema General de Participaciones (SGP)

Author

Listed:
  • Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro
  • Jesús Bejarano
  • Andrés Nicolás Herrera-Rojas
  • Manuela Quintero-Jácome
  • David Camilo López-Valenzuela
  • Jorge Enrique Ramos-Forero
  • Steven Zapata-Álvarez

Abstract

Este documento hace un recuento breve de la evolución histórica del Sistema General de Participaciones (SGP) en Colombia y presenta una descripción del Proyecto de Acto Legislativo (PAL) que se está discutiendo en el Congreso, el cual propone aumentar los recursos del SGP que el Gobierno Nacional transfiere anualmente a los territorios. En este contexto, se realiza una estimación cuantitativa del impacto fiscal y macroeconómico de esta iniciativa, según la cual, en ausencia de una reducción permanente del gasto del GNC por reasignación de competencias, la senda de la deuda pública sería creciente, con exigencias cada vez mayores para cumplir la regla fiscal, poniendo en riesgo la sostenibilidad fiscal. El aumento de la deuda resultaría en aumentos en los costos de financiamiento de la economía y tendría impactos negativos significativos sobre la capacidad productiva de la economía. El aumento en el riesgo de insostenibilidad de la deuda pública es aún mayor si se tiene en cuenta la incertidumbre sobre los ingresos fiscales a futuro y que la economía es vulnerable a choques adversos. La capacidad de respuesta contracíclica de la política fiscal y de la política monetaria a estos choques se vería reducida por el muy probable aumento de la deuda y la inflexibilidad del gasto que implica el PAL.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro & Jesús Bejarano & Andrés Nicolás Herrera-Rojas & Manuela Quintero-Jácome & David Camilo López-Valenzuela & Jorge Enrique Ramos-Forero & Steven Zapata-Álvarez, 2024. "Descripción, antecedentes y riesgo fiscal y macroeconómico del Proyecto de Acto Legislativo que modifica el Sistema General de Participaciones (SGP)," Borradores de Economia 1286, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1286
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1286
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eyraud, Luc & Lusinyan, Lusine, 2013. "Vertical fiscal imbalances and fiscal performance in advanced economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 571-587.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

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