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La Inversión en Infraestructura de Transporte

Author

Listed:
  • Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Jorge Hernán Toro-Córdoba

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Héctor M. Zárate-Solano

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract

Este documento evalúa la inversión realizada en infraestructura de transporte en Colombia, la cual tiene orígenes y fuentes de financiamiento diversas, entre las que se destacan recursos del Presupuesto General de la Nación (PGN), recursos propios y del Sistema General de Participaciones de los gobiernos territoriales, ingresos del Sistema General de Regalías y recursos de las Asociaciones Público-Privadas. La información permite concluir que a nivel del Gobierno Nacional Central existe un sesgo en el largo plazo contra la inversión pública. Adicionalmente, utilizando una metodología basada en el modelo de corrección de errores lineal y sus extensiones en el ámbito no lineal, el estudio también evalúa si existe un comportamiento procíclico o contra-cíclico de la inversión pública en infraestructura de transporte en Colombia. Los resultados indican que la inversión tiende a ser recortada en los malos tiempos, pero presenta algunas respuestas contra- cíclicas en periodos de buenos tiempos. **** RESUMEN: This paper assesses the investment carried out in transportation infrastructure in Colombia, which has diverse origins and sources of financing, among which resources from the General Budget of the Nation (PGN), from the General System of Participations and own resources of the regional governments, revenues from the General System of Royalties and resources from Public-Private Associations stand out. The exploratory analysis of the information supports the conclusion that at the level of the Central National Government, there is a longterm bias against public investment. Additionally, by using a methodology based on the linear error correction model and its extensions in the non-linear field, the study also evaluates whether there is a pro-cyclical or counter-cyclical behavior of public transport investment in Colombia. The results indicate that investment plays the role of a buffer variable that tends to be cut in bad times but presents some counter-cyclical responses at the beginning of good times.

Suggested Citation

  • Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Jorge Hernán Toro-Córdoba & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano, 2020. "La Inversión en Infraestructura de Transporte," Borradores de Economia 1145, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1145
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1145
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1145
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Theodore Kahn, 2020. "Ciclos políticos en la aprobación y ejecución de proyectos en el Sistema General de Regalías," Informes de Investigación 018290, Fedesarrollo.
    2. Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Jorge Enrique Ramos-Forero & Camilo Gómez, 2020. "El Presupuesto General de la Nación: Una aproximación a las partidas de transferencias e inversión," Borradores de Economia 1136, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Juan Mauricio Ramírez & Leonardo Villar, 2015. "Macroeconomía de las concesiones de cuarta generación," Informes de Investigación 015060, Fedesarrollo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    1. Luis Fernando Mejía & Martha Elena Delgado, 2020. "Impacto macroeconómico y social de la inversión en infraestructura en Colombia, 2021-2030," Informes de Investigación 018275, Fedesarrollo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inversión; Infraestructura en transporte; regalías; gobiernos subnacionales; modelo de corrección de errores; Investment; transportation infrastructure; royalties; subnational governments; error correction model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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