IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/2402.html

The medium-term effects of investment stimulus

Author

Listed:
  • Rubén Domínguez-Díaz

    (Banco de España)

  • Samuel Hurtado

    (Banco de España)

  • Carolina Menéndez

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper presents an endogenous growth general equilibrium model (EGGEM) of firm dynamics and innovative investment for the Spanish economy that allows the medium-term effects of economic policies and shocks to be better understood. The model is calibrated using both aggregate and firm-level data. It is then used to assess the medium-term macroeconomic consequences of the different components of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) programme, including public investment, private capital transfers and innovative investment transfers. According to our baseline simulation, the NGEU funds significantly foster economic activity by raising aggregate productivity, private investment and employment. As a result, annual GDP growth is increased by 0.17 percentage points on average over the period of NGEU disbursement. Among the different policy instruments considered, we find that innovation transfers have the largest impact on aggregate output, only matched by increases in the stock of public capital if it is highly efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Rubén Domínguez-Díaz & Samuel Hurtado & Carolina Menéndez, 2024. "The medium-term effects of investment stimulus," Working Papers 2402, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2402
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/35913
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbe/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/24/Files/dt2402e.pdf
    File Function: First version, January 2024
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.53479/35913?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pedro R.D. Bom & Jenny E. Ligthart, 2014. "What Have We Learned From Three Decades Of Research On The Productivity Of Public Capital?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 889-916, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schreiner, Lena & Madlener, Reinhard, 2022. "Investing in power grid infrastructure as a flexibility option: A DSGE assessment for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    2. Feng, Qu & Wu, Guiying Laura, 2018. "On the reverse causality between output and infrastructure: The case of China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 97-104.
    3. Achim Truger, 2015. "Implementing the golden rule for public investment in Europe," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 138, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    4. Jeremy Wood & Samuel Meng, 2021. "The economic impacts of the 2018 Winter Olympics," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(7), pages 1303-1322, November.
    5. Takuji Komatsuzaki, 2019. "Improving Public Infrastructure in the Philippines," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 36(2), pages 159-184, September.
    6. Hans Pitlik & Michael Klien & Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2017. "Stabilitätskonforme Berücksichtigung nachhaltiger öffentlicher Investitionen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60595.
    7. Jason Furman, 2020. "Comment on "Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment"," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment, pages 268-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Anton I. Votinov & Victoria A. Gribova & Samvel S. Lazaryan, 2023. "Analysis of the Transmission Mechanism of Public Investments: The Case of the DSGE Model," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 8-26, October.
    9. Bandiera, Luca & Tsiropoulos, Vasileios, 2020. "A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability under the Belt and Road Initiative," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Moore, Rachel & Pecoraro, Brandon, 2023. "Quantitative analysis of a wealth tax for the United States: Exclusions and expenditures," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. repec:wly:econjl:v::y:2017:i:605:p:f236-f265 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gergő Motyovszki & Philipp Pfeiffer & Jan in ’t Veld, 2024. "The Implications of Public Investment for Debt Sustainability," European Economy - Discussion Papers 204, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Carmen D. Ã lvarez-Albelo, 2018. "A calibration of the output elasticity of public capital," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 761-771.
    14. Sebastian Gechert & Bianka Mey & Matej Opatrny & Tomas Havranek & T. D. Stanley & Pedro R. D. Bom & Hristos Doucouliagos & Philipp Heimberger & Zuzana Irsova & Heiko J. Rachinger, 2025. "Conventional wisdom, meta‐analysis, and research revision in economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 980-999, July.
    15. Philipp Pfeiffer & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2021. "Quantifying Spillovers of Next Generation EU Investment," European Economy - Discussion Papers 144, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Noel Rapa & Abigail Marie Rapa, "undated". "The macroeconomic effects of closing the public sector capital gap in Malta," CBM Policy Papers PP/07/2019, Central Bank of Malta.
    17. Mario Alloza & Danilo Leiva-León & Alberto Urtasun, 2022. "The response of private investment to an increase in public investment," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2/2022.
    18. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    19. Marcello Minenna & Dario Aversa, 2019. "A Revised European Stability Mechanism to Realize Risk Sharing on Public Debts at Market Conditions and Realign Economic Cycles in the Euro Area," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(1), February.
    20. Dennis Gaus & Heike Link, 2020. "Economic Effects of Transportation Infrastructure Quantity and Quality: A Study of German Counties," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1848, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Vladimir ŠIMIĆ & Lena MALEŠEVIĆ PEROVIĆ, 2022. "Relevance Of Type Of Investment For Growth: Evidence From Eu-10 Countries," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 105-115, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdegves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.