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The Canadian Dollar and Commodity Prices: Has the Relationship Changed over Time?

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  • Philipp Maier
  • Brian DePratto

Abstract

The authors examine the impact of the recent run-up in energy and non-energy commodity prices on the Canadian dollar. Using the Bank of Canada's exchange rate equation, they find that the differences between the actual value of the Canadian exchange rate and the simulated values observed in 2007 are not historically large. Still, given that there is some evidence that the sensitivity of the standard exchange rate equation to changes in energy and non-energy commodities may have changed over time, the authors explore different ways of modelling the impact of energy and non-energy commodity prices. Their results indicate that specifications that explicitly consider the importance of energy and non-energy commodities in Canada's export or production basket may yield more stable coefficient estimates, particularly over recent periods. Future research should investigate the robustness of these findings, particularly if, at some point, price increases for energy and non-energy commodities were to moderate.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Maier & Brian DePratto, 2008. "The Canadian Dollar and Commodity Prices: Has the Relationship Changed over Time?," Discussion Papers 08-15, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:08-15
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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/dp/2008/dp08-15.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Beine, Michel & Bos, Charles S. & Coulombe, Serge, 2012. "Does the Canadian economy suffer from Dutch disease?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 468-492.
    2. Vasishtha, Garima & Maier, Philipp, 2013. "The impact of the global business cycle on small open economies: A FAVAR approach for Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 191-207.
    3. Domenico Ferraro & Ken Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 11-05, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    4. Mohamed BELHEDI & Ines SLAMA & Amine LAHIANI, 2015. "Tranmission Of International Shocks To An Emerging Small Open-Economy: Evidence From Tunisia," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 42, pages 231-258.
    5. Christopher Ragan, "undated". "The Seductive Myth of Canada’s “Overvalued” Dollar," e-briefs 158, C.D. Howe Institute.
    6. Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2015. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 116-141.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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