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Drugs and Violence in Colombia: a VECM Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Tomás González
  • Ron P Smith

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

Abstract

It has been widely argued that the production of illegal drugs, particularly cocaine, has financed guerrilla activity in Colombia. This paper uses quarterly time-series data for Colombia 1994-2005 to examine the interaction between legal agricultural production, illegal agricultural production of drugs and the number of guerrilla attacks. The time series analysis suggests that drug production acts as a weakly exogenous stochastic trend which has a negative effect on legal agricultural production and a positive effect on guerrilla attacks; with a long-run elasticity of attacks to drug production very close to unity.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomás González & Ron P Smith, 2009. "Drugs and Violence in Colombia: a VECM Analysis," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0906, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0906
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    File URL: http://www.bbk.ac.uk/ems/research/wp/PDF/BWPEF0906.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy J. Besley & Torsten Persson, 2008. "The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    3. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
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