Drugs and Violence in Colombia: a VECM Analysis
It has been widely argued that the production of illegal drugs, particularly cocaine, has financed guerrilla activity in Colombia. This paper uses quarterly time-series data for Colombia 1994-2005 to examine the interaction between legal agricultural production, illegal agricultural production of drugs and the number of guerrilla attacks. The time series analysis suggests that drug production acts as a weakly exogenous stochastic trend which has a negative effect on legal agricultural production and a positive effect on guerrilla attacks; with a long-run elasticity of attacks to drug production very close to unity.
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