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Modeling interest rate dynamics: an infinite-dimensional approach

  • Rama Cont

    (CMAP - Ecole Polytechnique)

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    We present a family of models for the term structure of interest rates which describe the interest rate curve as a stochastic process in a Hilbert space. We start by decomposing the deformations of the term structure into the variations of the short rate, the long rate and the fluctuations of the curve around its average shape. This fluctuation is then described as a solution of a stochastic evolution equation in an infinite dimensional space. In the case where deformations are local in maturity, this equation reduces to a stochastic PDE, of which we give the simplest example. We discuss the properties of the solutions and show that they capture in a parsimonious manner the essential features of yield curve dynamics: imperfect correlation between maturities, mean reversion of interest rates and the structure of principal components of term structure deformations. Finally, we discuss calibration issues and show that the model parameters have a natural interpretation in terms of empirically observed quantities.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/9902018
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    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number cond-mat/9902018.

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    Date of creation: Feb 1999
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    Publication status: Published in International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance Vol. 8, No. 3 (2005) 357--380
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/9902018
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    1. Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Philip H. Dybvig & Stephen A. Ross, 1998. "Long Forward and Zero-Coupon Rates Can Never Fall," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm45, Yale School of Management.
    2. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Nicolas Sagna & Rama Cont & Nicole El-Karoui & Marc Potters, 1999. "Phenomenology of the interest rate curve," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 209-232.
    3. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    4. repec:fth:inseep:9611 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Constantinides, George M, 1992. "A Theory of the Nominal Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 531-52.
    6. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
    7. Schaefer, Stephen M & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1987. " Time-Dependent Variance and the Pricing of Bond Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(5), pages 1113-28, December.
    8. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
    9. D. P. Kennedy, 1994. "The Term Structure Of Interest Rates As A Gaussian Random Field," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 247-258.
    10. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Nicolas Sagna & Rama Cont & Nicole El-Karoui & Marc Potters, 1998. "Strings Attached," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500049, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
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