IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2606.03457.html

Hybrid News Sentiment Engine: Real-Time Market Analysis via Adaptive Ensemble Learning on News-Price Pairs

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Aigner

Abstract

We present a hybrid news sentiment engine that continuously learns market sentiment from paired news headlines and concurrent asset-price snapshots without requiring any neural network training or GPU compute. The system uses a three-way ensemble combining (1) a financial-domain lexicon (FinBERT-style keyword scoring), (2) an adaptive statistical TF-IDF cluster learner that organizes headlines into semantic neighborhoods and tracks their average realized price reactions, and (3) an auto-calibrating weighting mechanism that adjusts ensemble contributions based on each signal's historical correlation with actual price movements. The engine runs on a 3-hour polling cycle from the Tradeflags NewsFeed API, which provides 22 price-snapshot fields per news item spanning equity indices (ES, NQ, SPY, DJIA, NDX, IWM), commodities (CL), and cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH). All processing occurs at sub-second latency on a CPU-only server at effectively zero marginal cost per analytic cycle. We compare our approach against established methods -- FinBERT, GPT-based scoring, VADER, and commercial sentiment APIs -- across dimensions of cost, latency, accuracy, and adaptability. Our statistical cluster learner, which adapts to changing market regimes without retraining, represents a novel contribution not found in existing sentiment systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Aigner, 2026. "Hybrid News Sentiment Engine: Real-Time Market Analysis via Adaptive Ensemble Learning on News-Price Pairs," Papers 2606.03457, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2606.03457
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.03457
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2606.03457. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.